Kennesaw State @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Kennesaw State

1-7 · Power #133

final

Final

UTEP

1-8 · Power #128

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTEP -4.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 18–24 UTEP

✓ UTEP (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -3

CloseUTEP -4.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTEP -3

1.5 → UTEP

CloseUTEP -4.5

1.5 pts toward UTEP

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTEP -3 · closed UTEP -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward UTEPmodel UTEP -10.5

model UTEP -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 50% (122 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -3

CloseUTEP -4.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTEP as a 4.5-point home favorite against KENN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTEP won 43–35; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 5.2; 44.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AKR vs KENT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	31–27	W	O39.75
Very close	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.25	17–0	W	U36
Close	CSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	17–13	L	U46
Close	FIU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-7	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	UNM vs UNLV 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	17–31	L	O45
Close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	LT vs MTSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-5	48–21	W	O47.5
Close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN LLWWW	3-4	43%	2-1	3-4
UTEP LLWWL	3-5	38%	1-3	0-2

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; UTEP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UOUOU	2-5	29%	1-7
UTEP OOOUU	3-5	38%	1-8

Went over in Q4. Of 165 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENNlast 9	1-8 11%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
UTEP	1-9 10%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−17.4 →−22.8▼ 5.4#132

UTEP−11.5 →−18.2▼ 6.7#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

KENN

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#137

Offense

Even

#129

#111

Defense

UTEP better ▶

#80

−0.8 #117

Turnovers

UTEP better ▶

−0.1 #79

62 plays #115

Pace

UTEP faster ▶

66 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	KENN off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	14.9 #135	29.1 #99	UTEP
Yards / play	3.95 #137	5.79 #88	UTEP
PPA / play	−0.14 #137	+0.10 #71	UTEP
Success rate	31% #137	41% #63	UTEP

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #132	31.1 #108	KENN
Yards / play	4.83 #129	6.17 #109	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #129	+0.17 #103	KENN
Success rate	37% #124	48% #125	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	4.0 #106	4.3 #128	8.3 #128	2.1 #128	4.5 #124	6.6 #131
UTEP allowed	6.4 #95	9.0 #97	15.4 #99	7.8 #112	5.6 #54	13.3 #88

UTEP scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.9 #92	3.8 #131	8.7 #127	4.4 #104	3.4 #133	7.9 #125
KENN allowed	7.0 #108	9.8 #113	16.8 #110	8.3 #116	6.1 #66	14.4 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.