Liberty @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

5-2 · Power #95

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

3-6 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

LIB -12.5

✓ LIB W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 35–22 MTSU

✓ LIB (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -9.5

CloseLIB -12.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -9.5

3 → LIB

CloseLIB -12.5

3 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -9.5 · closed LIB -12.5 · moved 3 toward LIBmodel LIB -11

model LIB -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 51% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (90 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -9.5

CloseLIB -12.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 12.5-point road favorite at MTSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 37–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 12; 61.1 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Very close	UTSA @ TLSA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.5	45–46	L	O52.5
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Close	UCF @ TEM 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.75	49–7	W	O52
Close	APP @ GAST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-10	45–16	W	O54.5
Close	AFA @ USU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-11.5	27–34	L	O53.75
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.25	45–10	W	U58
Close	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5
Close	UTSA @ RICE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	41–7	W	U56
Close	MEM @ TEM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	45–21	W	O64.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LWLLL	1-6	14%	0-2	1-6
MTSU WLLLW	2-6	25%	0-3	2-5

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UOUOU	3-4	43%	5-2
MTSU UOUUU	3-5	38%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
MTSU	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LIB 3–0 MTSU LIB leads · 3 games since 2021 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 17 2023	Middle Tennessee 35 @ Liberty 42	LIB -16	MTSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.4 →−5.4▼ 8.8#92

MTSU−7.5 →−18.4▼ 10.9#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

LIB

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#42

Offense

◀ LIB better

#117

#48

Defense

◀ LIB better

#124

+0.1 #62

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−0.8 #119

71 plays #23

Pace

◀ LIB faster

63 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #55	33.7 #117	LIB
Yards / play	6.13 #49	6.50 #123	LIB
PPA / play	+0.20 #41	+0.27 #129	LIB
Success rate	47% #23	48% #126	LIB

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	MTSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #131	23.4 #60	LIB
Yards / play	5.36 #101	5.42 #61	LIB
PPA / play	+0.02 #118	+0.02 #28	LIB
Success rate	38% #116	39% #41	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.9 #94	8.3 #69	13.1 #86	4.9 #93	11.0 #5	15.9 #36
MTSU allowed	10.9 #133	7.6 #74	18.4 #122	10.2 #132	5.0 #36	15.2 #111

MTSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.7 #72	2.7 #134	8.3 #128	5.3 #82	3.6 #132	8.9 #120
LIB allowed	6.7 #103	5.4 #28	12.1 #67	5.4 #62	5.9 #57	11.3 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.