Navy @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Navy

6-2 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

South Florida

4-4 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

NAVY -4.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 29–25 USF

✓ NAVY (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -3

CloseNAVY -4.5

Total55.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -3

1.5 → NAVY

CloseNAVY -4.5

1.5 pts toward Navy

Total

Open55.5

▲ 4

Close59.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -3 · closed NAVY -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward NAVYmodel NAVY -1.5

model NAVY -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 46% (72 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (84 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -3

CloseNAVY -4.5

Total55.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 4.5-point road favorite at USF, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 4.6; 57.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Very close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5
Very close	CSU @ USU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	24–26	L	U58.5
Very close	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Close	APP @ CCU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–35	L	U65.25
Close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-4	24–31	L	U59
Close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Close	KU @ CIN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	49–16	W	O59.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WWWLL	5-3	63%	2-1	4-2
USF LLLLW	2-4	33%	0-3	1-3

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; USF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOOOU	7-1	88%	6-2
USF OUUOO	3-3	50%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 46% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	8-1 89%
USF	6-4 60%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NAVY 0–1 USF USF leads · 1 game since 2023 · USF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	South Florida 44 @ Navy 30	NAVY -3.5	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−17.5 →−1.6▲ 15.9#72

USF−4.4 →−5.4▼ 1.0#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NAVY

Longer bar = better

USF

#13

Offense

◀ NAVY better

#103

#66

Defense

◀ NAVY better

#82

+0.8 #23

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

+0.4 #45

59 plays #130

Pace

USF faster ▶

71 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #19	28.9 #97	NAVY
Yards / play	6.71 #19	6.01 #98	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.36 #8	+0.14 #88	NAVY
Success rate	50% #7	40% #44	NAVY

When USF has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	USF off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #75	24.1 #65	Even
Yards / play	5.24 #111	5.68 #78	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.07 #104	+0.03 #33	NAVY
Success rate	37% #121	43% #88	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	8.4 #26	13.3 #5	21.6 #9	8.1 #31	6.9 #75	15.0 #42
USF allowed	9.1 #129	6.9 #53	16.0 #108	3.9 #24	9.0 #114	12.9 #80

USF scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	5.0 #85	8.0 #76	13.0 #87	9.8 #15	4.8 #121	14.5 #48
NAVY allowed	6.1 #92	5.8 #35	11.9 #64	6.8 #96	5.5 #52	12.3 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.