Tulane @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F13 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulane

8-2 · Power #40

▲ winner

Final

Navy

7-2 · Power #61

final

Closing spread

TULN -7.5

✓ TULN W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 30–22 NAVY

✓ TULN (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -6.5

CloseTULN -7.5

Total54.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -6.5

1 → TULN

CloseTULN -7.5

1 pt toward Tulane

Total

Open54.5

▼ 6

Close48.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -6.5 · closed TULN -7.5 · moved 1 toward TULNmodel TULN -7.5 matches the line

model TULN -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (88 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 60% (20 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -6.5

CloseTULN -7.5

Total54.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 7.5-point road favorite at NAVY, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 35–0; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 7.3; 48.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC @ MINN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	17–24	L	U45.5
Close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	42–7	W	U50
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	27–34	L	O56
Close	USA @ UL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	20–17	L	U47.25
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	TEX @ OKST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	42–14	W	O53
Loose	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10	32–31	L	O49.5
Loose	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6	19–24	L	P43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WLWWW	8-2	80%	4-1	7-1
NAVY WWLLW	6-3	67%	3-1	1-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; NAVY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN OUOUO	6-4	60%	8-2
NAVY OOOUU	7-2	78%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
NAVY	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+1.3 →+9.6▲ 8.3#23

NAVY−17.5 →+0.1▲ 17.6#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TULN

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#18

Offense

Even

#15

#25

Defense

◀ TULN better

#51

+1.1 #10

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #18

67 plays #68

Pace

◀ TULN faster

61 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #4	22.2 #46	TULN
Yards / play	6.58 #21	5.60 #71	TULN
PPA / play	+0.30 #13	0.00 #23	Even
Success rate	46% #34	41% #65	TULN

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #20	18.7 #20	Even
Yards / play	6.54 #23	5.14 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #10	−0.03 #11	Even
Success rate	49% #8	38% #29	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.2 #25	12.9 #7	21.1 #11	10.0 #10	9.9 #10	19.9 #4
NAVY allowed	5.4 #72	5.1 #22	10.6 #38	6.0 #79	5.7 #53	11.7 #59

NAVY scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	9.0 #19	12.6 #8	21.6 #8	7.2 #41	6.9 #71	14.1 #56
TULN allowed	2.6 #14	5.8 #37	8.4 #13	3.9 #28	6.4 #73	10.3 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.