Liberty @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Massachusetts

Weather at kickoff56°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

6-2 · Power #95

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

2-7 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

LIB -16.5

✓ MASS W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 34–18 MASS

✓ LIB (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -14

CloseLIB -16.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -14

2.5 → LIB

CloseLIB -16.5

2.5 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -14 · closed LIB -16.5 · moved 2.5 toward LIBmodel LIB -12

model LIB -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 53% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (95 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -14

CloseLIB -16.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 16.5-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 35–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 15; 55.9 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU @ CMU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	23–13	L	U48.5
Very close	UL @ USM 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	23–13	L	U57.5
Close	LIB @ MTSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-12.5	37–17	W	U55
Close	WSU @ SDSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	29–26	L	U56.5
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	WKU @ NMSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-18	41–28	L	O53.5
Close	OHIO @ AKR 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-14.5	25–14	L	U41.75
Close	UCF @ TEM 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-11.75	49–7	W	O52
Close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	41–40	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB WLLLW	2-6	25%	1-2	2-6
MASS WLLWL	3-6	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OUOUU	3-5	38%	6-2
MASS UOUUO	4-5	44%	2-7

Went over in Q4. Of 333 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
MASS	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LIB 1–0 MASS LIB leads · 1 game since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Massachusetts 25 @ Liberty 49	LIB -26.5	MASS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.4 →−4.6▼ 8.0#88

MASS−12.1 →−17.5▼ 5.4#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

LIB

Longer bar = better

MASS

#34

Offense

◀ LIB better

#113

#48

Defense

◀ LIB better

#99

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−0.2 #84

70 plays #29

Pace

◀ LIB faster

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #48	31.7 #107	LIB
Yards / play	6.30 #39	5.94 #96	LIB
PPA / play	+0.20 #36	+0.18 #105	LIB
Success rate	49% #11	43% #89	LIB

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	MASS off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #123	22.6 #52	LIB
Yards / play	4.90 #127	5.48 #64	LIB
PPA / play	+0.09 #96	+0.02 #32	LIB
Success rate	39% #106	39% #45	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	5.1 #85	9.8 #43	14.9 #59	4.6 #99	10.5 #8	15.1 #41
MASS allowed	4.7 #54	9.1 #99	13.8 #87	9.9 #130	7.7 #94	17.6 #125

MASS scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.2 #103	6.2 #115	10.4 #114	1.9 #130	6.9 #71	8.8 #122
LIB allowed	6.8 #105	4.8 #15	11.5 #59	4.8 #43	6.4 #71	11.1 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.