Washington State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at San Diego State

Weather at kickoff65°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Washington State

6-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

3-3 · Power #122

final

Closing spread

WSU -17.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 36–19 SDSU

✓ WSU (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -15

CloseWSU -17.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -15

2.5 → WSU

CloseWSU -17.5

2.5 pts toward Washington State

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -15 · closed WSU -17.5 · moved 2.5 toward WSUmodel WSU -15

model WSU -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -15

CloseWSU -17.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as a 17.5-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WSU won 29–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 18.4; 60.4 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Close	UL @ USM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	23–13	L	U57.5
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-16	34–16	W	U60.75
Close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar season form	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	FLA @ SC 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-20.5	17–40	L	O52
Close	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Close	BYU @ GASO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-20	34–17	L	U57.25
Close	LOU @ DUKE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total	-20	62–22	W	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU ––LWW	4-1	80%	1-1	3-0
SDSU LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: WSU away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU ––OUU	2-3	40%	6-1
SDSU UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	7-3 70%	6-2 75%	4-4 50%
SDSU	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	3-5-1 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+2.5 →+4.8▲ 2.3#47

SDSU−8.3 →−11.1▼ 2.8#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WSU

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#27

Offense

◀ WSU better

#113

#85

Defense

SDSU better ▶

#53

+1.0 #17

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #25

69 plays #35

Pace

◀ WSU faster

64 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.4 #16	22.7 #57	WSU
Yards / play	6.62 #24	5.13 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.07 #53	Even
Success rate	46% #31	40% #60	WSU

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU defense

	SDSU off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #112	27.0 #86	WSU
Yards / play	5.12 #113	6.17 #108	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #94	+0.10 #72	WSU
Success rate	34% #134	42% #72	WSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	10.4 #10	12.6 #10	23.0 #7	5.4 #83	9.9 #13	15.3 #43
SDSU allowed	5.7 #80	3.8 #10	9.5 #31	6.3 #86	6.8 #84	13.2 #89

SDSU scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	4.3 #100	5.8 #116	10.2 #110	4.0 #106	7.5 #56	11.5 #96
WSU allowed	6.3 #94	5.7 #36	12.0 #67	7.7 #114	6.4 #76	14.1 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.