San José State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

San José State

5-2 · Power #86

final

Final

Fresno State

4-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -6.5

✓ FRES W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 23–29 FRES

✓ FRES (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -6.5

CloseFRES -6.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -6.5

no move

CloseFRES -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -6.5 · unchangedmodel FRES -4.5

model FRES -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (116 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -6.5

CloseFRES -6.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 6.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 33–10; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 5.2; 54.8 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–48	L	O58
Very close	UAB vs UNT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	41–21	W	O58
Very close	SJSU vs UNLV 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	40–7	W	U51.5
Very close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	45–18	W	O58
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	AUB vs WKU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	41–17	W	O54
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Very close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	10–42	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU W–LLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
FRES WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	3-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU U–OOU	3-3	50%	5-2
FRES UUOUU	2-4	33%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
FRES	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SJSU 1–0 FRES SJSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SJSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Fresno State 18 @ San José State 42	SJSU -2	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−2.2 →−4.3▼ 2.1#88

FRES−2.4 →−2.5▼ 0.1#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SJSU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#44

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#93

#48

Defense

Even

#50

+0.4 #39

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

0.0 #74

67 plays #66

Pace

Even

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #41	26.6 #83	SJSU
Yards / play	6.38 #38	5.13 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #47	0.00 #24	FRES
Success rate	45% #50	40% #52	Even

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	FRES off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #67	24.4 #71	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #82	5.03 #35	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	0.00 #20	SJSU
Success rate	39% #108	41% #66	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	7.4 #34	8.4 #65	15.9 #50	6.4 #68	9.0 #26	15.4 #42
FRES allowed	6.7 #105	5.4 #31	12.1 #71	3.3 #14	11.1 #131	14.4 #103

FRES scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	7.1 #44	8.3 #67	15.4 #52	7.9 #32	4.9 #114	12.7 #74
SJSU allowed	6.4 #97	5.9 #40	12.3 #72	5.0 #55	6.0 #59	11.0 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.