Cincinnati @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

5-2 · Power #45

final

Final

Colorado

5-2 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

COLO -6.5

✓ COLO W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 25–31 COLO

✓ COLO (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -4

CloseCOLO -6.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCOLO -4

2.5 → COLO

CloseCOLO -6.5

2.5 pts toward Colorado

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened COLO -4 · closed COLO -6.5 · moved 2.5 toward COLOmodel COLO -7.5

model COLO -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (117 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (78 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -4

CloseCOLO -6.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 6.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 34–23; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 6; 50.1 points a game (usually 53.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	44–24	W	O60.5
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	17–26	L	U58
Very close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–14	W	U51
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Very close	WVU vs TTU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	20–23	L	U55.25
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN W–WWW	5-1	83%	3-0	3-0
COLO WWWWW	5-1	83%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN U–OUU	2-4	33%	5-2
COLO UOOOU	4-2	67%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 276 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
COLO	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.7 →+5.9▲ 7.6#40

COLO+0.6 →+6.9▲ 6.3#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CIN

Longer bar = better

COLO

#31

Offense

◀ CIN better

#47

#73

Defense

COLO better ▶

#50

+0.1 #65

Turnovers

COLO better ▶

+0.6 #32

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ CIN faster

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #56	21.9 #44	Even
Yards / play	6.58 #26	5.41 #62	CIN
PPA / play	+0.25 #22	+0.05 #48	CIN
Success rate	47% #20	39% #45	CIN

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #48	19.3 #26	CIN
Yards / play	5.99 #58	6.18 #110	COLO
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.07 #56	Even
Success rate	46% #29	43% #99	COLO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	11.3 #4	8.3 #67	19.6 #20	5.7 #77	4.7 #116	10.4 #107
COLO allowed	7.3 #112	8.4 #86	15.7 #101	2.4 #7	3.7 #15	6.1 #7

COLO scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	8.0 #30	7.7 #80	15.7 #51	6.9 #59	7.4 #60	14.3 #52
CIN allowed	3.3 #25	5.3 #29	8.6 #19	5.9 #70	4.9 #34	10.7 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.