West Virginia @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff98°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

3-4 · Power #63

▲ winner

Final

Arizona

3-4 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -5.5

✓ WVU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 26–30 ARIZ

✗ ARIZ (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -2.5

CloseARIZ -5.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -2.5

3 → ARIZ

CloseARIZ -5.5

3 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -2.5 · closed ARIZ -5.5 · moved 3 toward ARIZmodel ARIZ -2

model ARIZ -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (93 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 53% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -2.5

CloseARIZ -5.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 5.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 31–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 4.8; 45.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs IU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	38–35	L	O48
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–24	L	U53.75
Close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Close	CAL vs USC 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	24–14	W	U57.5
Close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-5	24–14	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LWWLL	2-5	29%	1-1	1-3
ARIZ LWLLL	1-6	14%	0-4	0-4

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU OOUUO	4-3	57%	3-4
ARIZ UUUOU	2-5	29%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 330 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ARIZ	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WVU 1–1 ARIZ Series tied · 2 games since 2024 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+4.6 →+4.0▼ 0.6#52

ARIZ+9.2 →+1.4▼ 7.8#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WVU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#68

Offense

◀ WVU better

#91

#103

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#83

−1.0 #125

Turnovers

ARIZ better ▶

−0.6 #108

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ WVU faster

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #70	27.6 #96	WVU
Yards / play	5.92 #63	5.54 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #73	+0.07 #55	Even
Success rate	44% #66	44% #105	WVU

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #105	28.7 #99	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #59	6.13 #108	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	+0.24 #123	ARIZ
Success rate	39% #104	42% #81	WVU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	6.9 #54	9.7 #51	16.6 #44	3.4 #115	8.4 #33	11.9 #92
ARIZ allowed	6.0 #86	9.9 #109	15.9 #105	5.3 #58	6.4 #75	11.7 #62

ARIZ scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	6.3 #66	3.3 #133	9.6 #117	7.1 #52	6.3 #87	13.4 #66
WVU allowed	2.9 #17	10.9 #121	13.7 #85	6.0 #72	9.0 #114	15.0 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.