Utah @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Utah

4-3 · Power #49

final

Final

Houston

2-5 · Power #76

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -4.5

✓ HOU W

Total

35.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 19–15 HOU

✗ UTAH (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -3

CloseUTAH -4.5

Total37.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -3

1.5 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -4.5

1.5 pts toward Utah

Total

Open37.5

▼ 2

Close35.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -3 · closed UTAH -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -5.5

model UTAH -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 47% (66 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (74 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -3

CloseUTAH -4.5

Total37.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 4.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 17–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 35.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 4.6; 45 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Very close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Very close	NEB @ MSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	17–20	L	O34.5
Close	WASH @ COLO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–20	L	U43
Close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5
Close	IOWA @ MSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	20–32	L	O39.5
Close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Close	MINN @ UCLA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–17	W	U39
Close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	25–21	W	O41
Close	RUTG @ ILL 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-1.5	20–14	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LWLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-5
HOU W–LWL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3
HOU U–UUO	1-4	20%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 61% of games with totals 31.5–39.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	2-8 20%
HOU	2-8 20%	4-4 50%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+6.4 →+4.6▼ 1.8#49

HOU−3.5 →−3.1▲ 0.4#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UTAH

Longer bar = better

HOU

#101

Offense

◀ UTAH better

#126

#15

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#70

−0.4 #95

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

−0.9 #119

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ UTAH faster

60 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	UTAH off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #97	23.6 #68	HOU
Yards / play	5.65 #84	5.46 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.14 #95	HOU
Success rate	39% #107	40% #50	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	HOU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	13.7 #137	16.4 #12	UTAH
Yards / play	5.03 #115	4.95 #30	UTAH
PPA / play	−0.07 #131	−0.03 #13	UTAH
Success rate	37% #120	34% #5	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	4.7 #93	9.1 #60	13.9 #78	5.0 #92	5.1 #110	10.1 #109
HOU allowed	6.4 #97	6.3 #44	12.7 #73	4.3 #36	6.6 #79	10.9 #45

HOU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.4 #118	5.7 #117	9.1 #122	1.7 #133	2.9 #134	4.6 #134
UTAH allowed	2.7 #16	4.9 #23	7.6 #11	4.6 #42	4.3 #25	8.9 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.