Utah State @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Wyoming · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

1-6 · Power #106

▲ winner

Final

Wyoming

1-6 · Power #114

final

Closing spread

USU -1.5

✓ USU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 28–28 WYO

✓ USU (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWYO -2.5

CloseUSU -1.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWYO -2.5

4 → USU

CloseUSU -1.5

4 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WYO -2.5 · closed USU -1.5 · moved 4 toward USUmodel WYO -3

model WYO -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (73 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWYO -2.5

CloseUSU -1.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 1.5-point road favorite at WYO, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 27–25; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 2.7; 54.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Close	HAW @ UNM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	21–42	L	O60
Close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	HAW @ UNLV 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-3.5	13–27	L	U55.5
Close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Close	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Loose	JXST @ EMU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–37	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WLLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	0-1
WYO –LWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: USU away, as favorite; WYO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OOOOO	5-1	83%	1-6
WYO –OOOU	4-2	67%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	2-8 20%	2-7 22%	7-2 78%
WYO	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.9 →−13.9▼ 7.0#120

WYO−4.9 →−14.8▼ 9.9#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

USU

Longer bar = better

WYO

#67

Offense

◀ USU better

#133

Defense

WYO better ▶

#113

−0.9 #116

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #107

73 plays #12

Pace

◀ USU faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #75	30.4 #108	USU
Yards / play	6.42 #33	6.31 #118	USU
PPA / play	+0.12 #75	+0.20 #114	USU
Success rate	42% #85	44% #111	USU

When WYO has the ball

Even matchup

	WYO off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #128	43.9 #135	Even
Yards / play	4.29 #136	6.85 #132	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #130	+0.34 #135	Even
Success rate	31% #136	50% #130	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USU scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	5.4 #83	7.9 #80	13.3 #86	7.4 #42	7.1 #67	14.6 #51
WYO allowed	7.9 #118	11.0 #123	18.9 #123	7.9 #115	3.7 #14	11.6 #60

WYO scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	3.9 #110	4.0 #127	7.9 #131	3.4 #115	5.9 #96	9.3 #115
USU allowed	5.9 #81	19.9 #134	25.7 #133	7.3 #107	10.9 #129	18.1 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.