New Mexico @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

3-4 · Power #111

final

Final

Colorado State

4-3 · Power #100

▲ winner

Closing spread

CSU -3.5

✓ CSU W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 31–36 CSU

✓ CSU (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -6.5

CloseCSU -3.5

Total65.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCSU -6.5

3 → UNM

CloseCSU -3.5

3 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open65.5

▼ 4

Close61.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CSU -6.5 · closed CSU -3.5 · moved 3 toward UNMmodel CSU -7.5

model CSU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (167 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -6.5

CloseCSU -3.5

Total65.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 17–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 3.8; 61.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ODU vs GASO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	23–28	L	U66
Close	WSU vs COLO 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	56–14	W	O59.5
Close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-4	51–31	W	O66
Close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Close	TLSA vs MEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-3	35–29	W	O60.5
Close	TULN vs USF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	45–10	W	U60.5
Close	NCSU vs WAKE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	30–34	L	O52.5
Close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Close	NAVY vs UNT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–24	L	U60.5
Close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM LLWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	2-2
CSU LWWWW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-1

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; CSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OUOOO	6-1	86%	3-4
CSU UUOOU	3-4	43%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 44% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
CSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.4 →−12.6▼ 1.2#117

CSU−8.3 →−8.3–#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UNM

Longer bar = better

CSU

#28

Offense

◀ UNM better

#85

#134

Defense

CSU better ▶

#83

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #105

71 plays #23

Pace

◀ UNM faster

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #20	27.1 #90	UNM
Yards / play	6.61 #26	5.69 #86	UNM
PPA / play	+0.24 #24	+0.08 #65	UNM
Success rate	46% #42	42% #89	UNM

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #108	43.0 #134	CSU
Yards / play	5.77 #76	7.16 #135	CSU
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	+0.29 #131	CSU
Success rate	45% #56	51% #135	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.3 #43	12.0 #17	19.3 #24	7.7 #38	10.4 #8	18.1 #14
CSU allowed	3.0 #20	8.9 #88	11.9 #64	5.0 #54	8.1 #108	13.1 #86

CSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	4.9 #88	6.4 #110	11.3 #102	4.4 #100	5.7 #99	10.1 #109
UNM allowed	8.6 #124	10.6 #117	19.1 #125	8.4 #118	15.4 #134	23.9 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.