Nevada @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 11:59 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F10 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Nevada

3-5 · Power #102

final

Final

Hawai'i

2-5 · Power #109

▲ winner

Closing spread

HAW -1.5

✓ HAW W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 23–24 HAW

✓ HAW (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEV -2.5

CloseHAW -1.5

Total47.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEV -2.5

4 → HAW

CloseHAW -1.5

4 pts toward Hawai'i

Total

Open47.5

▼ 6

Close41.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEV -2.5 · closed HAW -1.5 · moved 4 toward HAWmodel NEV -1

model NEV -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 45% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEV -2.5

CloseHAW -1.5

Total47.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 1.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 34–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.4 against an average line of 2.3; 47.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	CMU vs SDSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	22–21	L	U47.5
Close	UVA vs LOU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	17–34	L	O47.5
Close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	25–24	L	U50
Close	MIZ vs UK 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	17–21	L	U40
Loose	UTEP vs UNLV 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1	28–45	L	O49.5
Loose	SJSU vs FRES 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	42–18	W	O51.5
Loose	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Loose	FIU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	14–27	L	U43
Loose	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	6–13	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LWWWL	5-3	63%	2-1	4-2
HAW –WLLL	2-4	33%	2-2	1-1

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; HAW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UOOOU	4-4	50%	3-5
HAW –UOUU	1-5	17%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 133 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
HAW	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEV 0–1 HAW HAW leads · 1 game since 2023 · HAW has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Hawai'i 27 @ Nevada 14	NEV -3	HAW W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−15.0 →−6.3▲ 8.7#95

HAW−11.7 →−11.0▲ 0.7#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

NEV

Longer bar = better

HAW

#62

Offense

◀ NEV better

#94

#100

Defense

HAW better ▶

#66

+0.3 #59

Turnovers

◀ NEV better

−0.6 #104

64 plays #95

Pace

Even

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #85	23.6 #65	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #63	5.52 #70	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	+0.15 #96	NEV
Success rate	45% #49	38% #33	Even

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #122	26.8 #84	NEV
Yards / play	5.34 #103	5.99 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.18 #105	Even
Success rate	44% #60	45% #111	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.0 #45	7.3 #91	14.3 #67	6.6 #63	5.6 #103	12.3 #87
HAW allowed	3.9 #35	7.9 #74	11.7 #62	4.9 #52	7.0 #85	11.9 #63

HAW scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	6.0 #71	3.9 #130	9.9 #112	5.9 #75	4.0 #128	9.9 #112
NEV allowed	4.6 #56	10.3 #113	14.9 #92	4.6 #40	7.3 #91	11.9 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.