Liberty @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Wed, Oct 23, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kennesaw State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Liberty

5-0 · Power #95

final

Final

Kennesaw State

0-6 · Power #133

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -27.5

✓ KENN W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 38–11 KENN

✗ LIB (97%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -23.5

CloseLIB -27.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -23.5

4 → LIB

CloseLIB -27.5

4 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -23.5 · closed LIB -27.5 · moved 4 toward LIBmodel LIB -22

model LIB -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -23.5

CloseLIB -27.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like LIB as a 27.5-point road favorite at KENN, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KENN won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20.8 against an average line of 22.4; 55.8 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TROY @ ULM 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-23.5	16–29	L	U49.5
Loose	TROY @ ULM 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & situation	-21.5	45–14	W	O46.75
Loose	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-24	55–0	W	O53
Loose	NIU @ KENT 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-20.5	37–27	L	O44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LLLWL	1-4	20%	0-1	1-4
KENN LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-3	1-4

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; KENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OUUOU	2-3	40%	5-0
KENN UUUOU	1-4	20%	0-6

Went over in Q4. Of 264 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
KENNlast 7	0-7 0%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LIB 3–3 KENN Series tied · 6 games since 2015 · LIB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.4 →−2.1▼ 5.5#78

KENN−17.4 →−24.6▼ 7.2#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LIB

Longer bar = better

KENN

#29

Offense

◀ LIB better

#137

#31

Defense

◀ LIB better

#106

+0.4 #48

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−1.0 #127

69 plays #42

Pace

◀ LIB faster

61 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #37	32.3 #115	LIB
Yards / play	6.50 #30	6.03 #102	LIB
PPA / play	+0.24 #27	+0.14 #89	LIB
Success rate	48% #20	46% #118	LIB

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	KENN off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #137	21.2 #41	LIB
Yards / play	3.72 #137	5.03 #35	LIB
PPA / play	−0.22 #137	−0.05 #9	LIB
Success rate	28% #137	38% #37	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.0 #104	8.8 #63	12.8 #89	6.2 #70	12.6 #4	18.8 #12
KENN allowed	4.7 #63	11.3 #127	16.0 #106	10.5 #134	5.8 #56	16.3 #122

KENN scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	3.0 #120	4.5 #123	7.5 #132	1.7 #133	3.8 #128	5.5 #132
LIB allowed	6.6 #102	4.8 #27	11.4 #58	4.2 #36	5.6 #50	9.8 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.