Nebraska @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

5-2 · Power #41

final

Final

Ohio State

5-1 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -25.5

✓ NEB W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 11–37 OSU

✓ OSU (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -25.5

CloseOSU -25.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -25.5

no move

CloseOSU -25.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -25.5 · unchangedmodel OSU -28

model OSU -28

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–27.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 48% (70 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -25.5

CloseOSU -25.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 25.5-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 21–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.9 against an average line of 24.1; 49.3 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs AUB 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-27.5	42–10	W	O49.5
Close	OSU vs IOWA 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-29.75	54–10	W	O50
Close	ALA vs TA&M 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-24	24–20	L	U48
Close	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5
Close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	MICH vs MSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-22.25	29–7	L	U55
Close	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5
Close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-23.5	33–7	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB WLWWL	3-2	60%	1-1	0-1
OSU WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB UOUUO	2-3	40%	5-2
OSU OOUUO	4-2	67%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	3-3-1 50%	3-4 43%
OSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+2.3 →+3.4▲ 1.1#55

OSU+21.3 →+26.0▲ 4.7#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

NEB

Longer bar = better

OSU

#67

Offense

OSU better ▶

#31

Defense

OSU better ▶

#13

+0.3 #51

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #41

67 plays #67

Pace

Even

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	NEB off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #93	11.0 #3	OSU
Yards / play	5.54 #89	4.37 #7	OSU
PPA / play	+0.19 #46	−0.02 #16	OSU
Success rate	46% #41	37% #25	Even

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #6	17.7 #19	Even
Yards / play	7.53 #5	4.87 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.52 #1	+0.04 #39	OSU
Success rate	55% #4	39% #43	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	6.4 #60	10.3 #36	16.7 #41	2.9 #123	5.4 #101	8.3 #126
OSU allowed	2.7 #12	5.0 #28	7.7 #15	0.5 #2	2.8 #6	3.3 #2

OSU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	8.7 #21	13.3 #5	22.0 #12	15.2 #1	6.3 #85	21.5 #4
NEB allowed	3.4 #30	3.4 #7	6.9 #7	3.9 #27	6.0 #60	9.9 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.