UCLA @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F9 mphgusts 17Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UCLA

2-5 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

5-3 · Power #41

final

Closing spread

NEB -8.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 16–25 NEB

✗ NEB (73%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -7

CloseNEB -8.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -7

1.5 → NEB

CloseNEB -8.5

1.5 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open41.5

▼ 2

Close39.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -7 · closed NEB -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward NEBmodel NEB -8.5 matches the line

model NEB -8.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 49% (80 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (80 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -7

CloseNEB -8.5

Total41.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as an 8.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 27–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 7.7; 42.1 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WIS vs NEB 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	24–17	P	O36.5
Close	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	3–7	L	U46
Close	IOWA vs ILL 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	33–23	L	O38.25
Close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5
Close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-6	35–13	W	O38
Close	IOWA vs MSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12	26–16	L	O36.5
Close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA –WWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
NEB LWWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA –UUUO	2-4	33%	2-5
NEB OUUOU	2-4	33%	5-3

Went over in Q3. Of 82 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%
NEB	5-5 50%	4-2-1 67%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UCLA 7–8 NEB NEB leads · 15 games since 1946 · NEB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+7.7 →+1.1▼ 6.6#65

NEB+2.3 →+5.2▲ 2.9#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UCLA

Longer bar = better

NEB

#118

Offense

NEB better ▶

#81

#103

Defense

NEB better ▶

#40

−1.0 #127

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+0.3 #51

58 plays #134

Pace

NEB faster ▶

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	UCLA off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	17.4 #130	18.1 #18	NEB
Yards / play	5.24 #110	4.99 #33	NEB
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	+0.05 #48	NEB
Success rate	37% #119	40% #61	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #98	29.0 #100	Even
Yards / play	5.37 #103	5.64 #77	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.17 #53	+0.19 #108	NEB
Success rate	44% #68	49% #128	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.9 #111	5.9 #118	9.7 #116	3.3 #118	4.4 #123	7.7 #127
NEB allowed	3.9 #39	3.9 #10	7.8 #11	3.4 #16	6.1 #65	9.5 #23

NEB scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	5.6 #77	9.8 #43	15.4 #52	2.9 #125	5.8 #100	8.6 #122
UCLA allowed	6.0 #85	8.3 #83	14.3 #89	7.1 #104	7.6 #94	14.7 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.