Iowa @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Fri, Nov 8, 2024, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Iowa

6-3 · Power #30

final

Final

UCLA

3-5 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -6.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 25–19 UCLA

✗ IOWA (67%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -6.5

CloseIOWA -6.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -6.5

no move

CloseIOWA -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -6.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -5

model IOWA -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 58% (94 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -6.5

CloseIOWA -6.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 6.5-point road favorite at UCLA, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 5.9; 46.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Very close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	6–20	L	U44
Very close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	24–3	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LWLWW	4-4	50%	1-2	4-3
UCLA WWLWW	4-3	57%	1-2	4-2

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; UCLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UOOOO	7-1	88%	6-3
UCLA UUUOO	3-4	43%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%
UCLA	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+2.5 →+10.7▲ 8.2#23

UCLA+7.7 →+2.7▼ 5.0#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

IOWA

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#59

Offense

◀ IOWA better

#113

#36

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#96

+1.1 #10

Turnovers

◀ IOWA better

−0.6 #113

61 plays #124

Pace

Even

57 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: IOWA offense

	IOWA off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #47	27.9 #93	IOWA
Yards / play	5.87 #70	5.48 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.15 #95	IOWA
Success rate	44% #61	48% #127	IOWA

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	UCLA off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #129	18.0 #17	IOWA
Yards / play	5.39 #98	5.03 #35	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.06 #106	+0.01 #25	IOWA
Success rate	38% #119	41% #66	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.0 #124	6.1 #116	9.1 #122	12.1 #3	9.6 #16	21.7 #4
UCLA allowed	5.3 #64	8.1 #75	13.4 #81	7.1 #103	7.4 #91	14.5 #105

UCLA scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.8 #115	6.4 #109	10.1 #116	4.6 #97	3.9 #130	8.5 #123
IOWA allowed	1.8 #5	5.7 #34	7.4 #7	5.4 #59	5.1 #41	10.6 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.