Wisconsin @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

5-3 · Power #47

final

Final

Iowa

5-3 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -2.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 19–22 IOWA

✓ IOWA (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -3.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -3.5

1 → WIS

CloseIOWA -2.5

1 pt toward Wisconsin

Total

Open42.5

▼ 2

Close40.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -3.5 · closed IOWA -2.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel IOWA -3

model IOWA -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (174 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 52% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -3.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 2.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 40.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.2 against an average line of 2.8; 40.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB vs IOWA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.25	21–28	L	O41
Very close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Very close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Very close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LWWWL	3-5	38%	2-1	1-3
IOWA WLWLW	3-4	43%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OOOUU	4-4	50%	5-3
IOWA OUOOO	6-1	86%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 111 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
IOWA	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WIS 49–48 IOWA (2 tied) WIS leads · 99 games since 1894 · IOWA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Iowa 15 @ Wisconsin 6	WIS -8.5	IOWA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.7 →+8.4▲ 2.7#30

IOWA+2.5 →+8.7▲ 6.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WIS

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#71

Offense

Even

#72

#51

Defense

Even

#41

−0.4 #97

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+1.0 #14

70 plays #34

Pace

◀ WIS faster

60 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	WIS off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #80	19.0 #25	IOWA
Yards / play	5.64 #78	5.08 #38	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.03 #32	IOWA
Success rate	45% #47	41% #70	WIS

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	IOWA off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #59	18.9 #24	WIS
Yards / play	5.77 #75	5.22 #48	WIS
PPA / play	+0.13 #73	+0.13 #89	Even
Success rate	43% #82	39% #41	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	6.9 #51	6.9 #98	13.8 #76	7.3 #47	6.0 #87	13.3 #67
IOWA allowed	1.6 #5	6.4 #45	8.0 #12	6.1 #82	4.9 #32	11.0 #49

IOWA scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.4 #119	5.1 #124	8.5 #127	11.9 #3	9.0 #21	20.9 #4
WIS allowed	1.8 #6	5.0 #21	6.8 #4	6.0 #76	6.1 #67	12.1 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.