Louisville @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

5-3 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Clemson

6-1 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

CLEM -11.5

✓ LOU W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 24–34 CLEM

✗ CLEM (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -11.5

CloseCLEM -11.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -11.5

no move

CloseCLEM -11.5

No change since the open

Total

Open61.5

▲ 1

Close62.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -11.5 · unchangedmodel CLEM -6

model CLEM -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 35% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -11.5

CloseCLEM -11.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as an 11.5-point home favorite against LOU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 33–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 62.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 10.7; 64.9 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LSU vs TA&M 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	42–30	W	O67.75
Close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	45–38	L	O58
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5
Close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Close	PITT vs UVA 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-13	48–38	L	O67.5
Close	OKST vs TTU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & total	-11.5	41–31	L	O65.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Close	CIN vs SMU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.75	48–14	W	U65.5
Close	UNC vs SYR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	40–7	W	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU LLLLL	3-5	38%	0-3	0-2
CLEM WWLWL	4-3	57%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: LOU away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OOUOO	6-2	75%	5-3
CLEM OUUUO	3-4	43%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 45% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
CLEM	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.6 →+12.8▲ 3.2#17

CLEM+12.9 →+15.9▲ 3.0#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

LOU

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#17

Offense

Even

#68

Defense

Even

#57

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

CLEM better ▶

+1.3 #8

66 plays #78

Pace

CLEM faster ▶

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #21	23.0 #60	LOU
Yards / play	6.97 #12	5.38 #58	LOU
PPA / play	+0.27 #17	+0.09 #64	LOU
Success rate	48% #17	39% #44	LOU

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #4	24.6 #72	CLEM
Yards / play	7.05 #10	5.45 #65	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.43 #4	+0.13 #87	CLEM
Success rate	50% #9	39% #46	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.9 #51	10.8 #26	17.6 #34	10.4 #9	8.6 #26	19.0 #9
CLEM allowed	1.4 #3	7.7 #74	9.1 #25	4.0 #30	9.9 #125	13.9 #95

CLEM scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	13.3 #1	13.3 #4	26.6 #1	10.3 #11	5.1 #113	15.4 #41
LOU allowed	8.3 #120	7.6 #73	15.9 #105	4.1 #35	4.6 #25	8.8 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.