Louisiana @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Tue, Oct 29, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F16 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisiana

6-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Texas State

4-3 · Power #54

final

Closing spread

TXST -3.5

✓ UL W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 26–31 TXST

✗ TXST (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -3.5

CloseTXST -3.5

Total65.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -3.5

no move

CloseTXST -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open65.5

▼ 4

Close61.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -3.5 · unchangedmodel TXST -6.5

model TXST -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 48% (169 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -3.5

CloseTXST -3.5

Total65.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 3.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 23–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 61.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 4.7; 63.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Very close	TTU vs WVU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-5	48–10	W	U65.5
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	SMU vs MEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–31	L	U68.5
Close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-6	28–13	W	U57
Close	WSU vs COLO 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	56–14	W	O59.5
Close	TULN vs USF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-4	45–10	W	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LWLLW	3-3	50%	3-1	1-1
TXST LLWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	3-3

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL OOUUO	3-3	50%	6-1
TXST OOUUU	3-3	50%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 44% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	7-3 70%	5-3-1 63%	6-3 67%
TXST	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UL 13–0 TXST UL leads · 13 games since 2013 · UL has won the last 13 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Texas State 30 @ Louisiana 34	UL -1	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−5.1 →−0.7▲ 4.4#71

TXST−3.2 →+2.7▲ 5.9#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

TXST

#18

Offense

◀ UL better

#32

#87

Defense

TXST better ▶

#38

+0.6 #32

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.4 #99

66 plays #79

Pace

TXST faster ▶

72 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #27	22.6 #56	UL
Yards / play	6.76 #20	4.87 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #11	+0.05 #44	UL
Success rate	49% #14	38% #30	Even

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #26	22.9 #60	TXST
Yards / play	6.37 #38	5.42 #62	TXST
PPA / play	+0.22 #32	+0.17 #103	TXST
Success rate	46% #33	47% #124	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UL scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.9 #73	13.4 #4	19.3 #22	7.1 #51	7.7 #51	14.9 #47
TXST allowed	2.9 #17	8.3 #82	11.1 #54	6.3 #83	5.1 #41	11.4 #58

TXST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	12.3 #3	9.3 #56	21.6 #14	7.9 #32	5.3 #108	13.1 #68
UL allowed	1.4 #3	10.3 #114	11.7 #63	6.9 #100	4.3 #21	11.1 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.