Arkansas State @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F7 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arkansas State

5-3 · Power #113

final

Final

Louisiana

7-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -14.5

✓ UL W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 23–37 UL

✓ UL (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -14

CloseUL -14.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -14

0.5 → UL

CloseUL -14.5

0.5 pts toward Louisiana

Total

Open59.5

no move

Close59.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -14 · closed UL -14.5 · moved 0.5 toward ULmodel UL -14.5 matches the line

model UL -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 52% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -14

CloseUL -14.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 14.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 55–19; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 59.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Below normal · usually 83%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 13.5; 59 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & total	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5
Very close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-13	43–46	L	O59
Very close	MEM vs USF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	59–50	L	O68.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Very close	GAST vs ULM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	28–31	L	U59.5
Very close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Very close	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25
Very close	TOL vs CSU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	6–22	L	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-2
UL WLLWW	4-3	57%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OUUOO	3-3	50%	5-3
UL OUUOU	3-4	43%	7-1

Went over in Q3. Of 198 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	2-6 25%	4-4 50%
UL	8-2 80%	5-3-1 63%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARST 1–0 UL ARST leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Louisiana 17 @ Arkansas State 37	UL -7	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−7.6 →−10.4▼ 2.8#108

UL−5.1 →+0.5▲ 5.6#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ARST

Longer bar = better

#100

Offense

UL better ▶

#20

#126

Defense

UL better ▶

#84

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

UL better ▶

+0.8 #25

73 plays #10

Pace

◀ ARST faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #102	22.1 #47	UL
Yards / play	5.32 #106	5.40 #58	UL
PPA / play	+0.11 #84	+0.16 #100	Even
Success rate	39% #106	50% #129	ARST

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #35	31.4 #111	UL
Yards / play	6.77 #17	6.70 #129	UL
PPA / play	+0.33 #11	+0.26 #128	UL
Success rate	48% #15	51% #135	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.6 #51	4.5 #126	11.1 #105	5.9 #74	7.0 #70	12.9 #72
UL allowed	2.0 #7	9.0 #98	11.0 #50	7.0 #100	4.1 #16	11.1 #54

UL scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	6.0 #66	12.6 #7	18.6 #26	6.6 #55	7.5 #52	14.1 #54
ARST allowed	5.6 #77	8.5 #87	14.1 #89	8.3 #115	9.0 #114	17.3 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.