South Alabama @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

4-5 · Power #66

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana

8-1 · Power #71

final

Closing spread

UL -6.5

✓ USA W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 26–32 UL

✗ UL (67%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -8

CloseUL -6.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -8

1.5 → USA

CloseUL -6.5

1.5 pts toward South Alabama

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -8 · closed UL -6.5 · moved 1.5 toward USAmodel UL -4

model UL -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (135 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 59% (22 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -8

CloseUL -6.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 6.5-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 24–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 4.7; 54.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Very close	MRSH vs UAB 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	14–21	L	U55.5
Very close	GASO vs CCU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6	38–28	W	O64.5
Very close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-4	17–23	L	U60.5
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4	14–40	L	U61
Close	CCU vs GAST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	17–30	L	U62.5
Close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–19	L	U58
Close	UTSA vs UAB 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.75	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLWWL	3-5	38%	0-3	0-1
UL LLWWW	5-3	63%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UUUOO	4-4	50%	4-5
UL UUOUO	4-4	50%	8-1

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 44% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
UL	8-2 80%	5-3-1 63%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USA 0–1 UL UL leads · 1 game since 2023 · UL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Louisiana 33 @ South Alabama 20	USA -11.5	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA+0.8 →+0.1▼ 0.7#67

UL−5.1 →+1.6▲ 6.7#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USA

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

Even

#12

#72

Defense

Even

#82

+0.9 #19

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #20

67 plays #65

Pace

◀ USA faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #19	21.8 #40	USA
Yards / play	6.77 #13	5.38 #58	USA
PPA / play	+0.34 #9	+0.16 #99	USA
Success rate	51% #6	50% #129	USA

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #23	24.8 #67	UL
Yards / play	7.01 #6	5.91 #94	UL
PPA / play	+0.35 #7	+0.09 #64	UL
Success rate	48% #12	41% #62	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USA scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.0 #66	11.7 #13	17.7 #34	12.4 #1	5.4 #110	17.9 #12
UL allowed	1.8 #6	8.7 #90	10.4 #36	6.9 #98	4.4 #18	11.3 #55

UL scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	6.4 #58	13.6 #3	20.0 #16	7.8 #37	7.4 #56	15.2 #42
USA allowed	6.4 #98	7.2 #62	13.7 #84	4.2 #35	6.9 #76	11.1 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.