Troy @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Troy

3-7 · Power #97

final

Final

Louisiana

8-2 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -7.5

✓ UL W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 22–31 UL

✓ UL (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -12

CloseUL -7.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -12

4.5 → TROY

CloseUL -7.5

4.5 pts toward Troy

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -12 · closed UL -7.5 · moved 4.5 toward TROYmodel UL -12

model UL -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (117 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 62% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -12

CloseUL -7.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 7.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 51–30; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 8.4; 48.6 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs RICE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	27–20	P	U50.5
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-10	25–9	W	U53
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5
Close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Close	BUFF vs OHIO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–26	L	U54.5
Close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.75	17–44	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LLWWW	5-5	50%	3-2	4-3
UL LWWWL	5-4	56%	1-3	3-3

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUOOU	4-6	40%	3-7
UL UOUOU	4-5	44%	8-2

Went over in Q3. Of 389 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UL	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TROY 12–9 UL TROY leads · 21 games since 1994 · UL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Louisiana 24 @ Troy 31	TROY -16	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY+2.8 →−7.0▼ 9.8#99

UL−5.1 →+1.6▲ 6.7#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TROY

Longer bar = better

#78

Offense

UL better ▶

#15

#96

Defense

Even

#82

−0.5 #109

Turnovers

UL better ▶

+0.8 #23

63 plays #113

Pace

UL faster ▶

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #106	22.0 #43	UL
Yards / play	5.71 #73	5.40 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	+0.15 #98	TROY
Success rate	44% #63	49% #128	TROY

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #29	27.0 #82	UL
Yards / play	6.94 #7	5.96 #100	UL
PPA / play	+0.33 #8	+0.15 #96	UL
Success rate	48% #16	44% #104	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	2.4 #129	8.2 #71	10.6 #113	6.2 #65	6.2 #92	12.4 #79
UL allowed	2.3 #11	9.5 #101	11.8 #58	6.2 #84	4.0 #12	10.2 #33

UL scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.8 #68	12.5 #8	18.3 #28	7.3 #43	8.3 #38	15.6 #39
TROY allowed	6.0 #92	7.6 #71	13.6 #83	8.8 #123	4.6 #23	13.4 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.