James Madison @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff35°F16 mphgusts 36DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

James Madison

8-2 · Power #59

final

Final

App State

4-5 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -6.5

✓ APP W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 30–23 APP

✗ JMU (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -7.5

CloseJMU -6.5

Total60.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -7.5

1 → APP

CloseJMU -6.5

1 pt toward App State

Total

Open60.5

▼ 4

Close56.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -7.5 · closed JMU -6.5 · moved 1 toward APPmodel JMU -10

model JMU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 58% (104 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 63% (24 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -7.5

CloseJMU -6.5

Total60.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 6.5-point road favorite at APP, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 34–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 7.6; 54.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-9	31–3	W	U52
Close	ARK @ MSST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	58–25	W	O55
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	42–14	W	O53
Close	APP @ GAST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-10	45–16	W	O54.5
Close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-3	32–39	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WLLWW	5-4	56%	2-2	4-4
APP LWLWL	3-5	38%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; APP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UUUUO	3-6	33%	8-2
APP OUUUU	2-6	25%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%
APP	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JMU 3–7 APP APP leads · 10 games since 1980 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	App State 26 @ James Madison 23	JMU -10	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+2.2 →+4.1▲ 1.9#51

APP−0.7 →−8.5▼ 7.8#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

JMU

Longer bar = better

APP

#50

Offense

◀ JMU better

#71

#10

Defense

◀ JMU better

#130

+1.9 #1

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−1.2 #132

68 plays #50

Pace

APP faster ▶

72 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #20	34.8 #122	JMU
Yards / play	6.04 #53	6.76 #129	JMU
PPA / play	+0.13 #73	+0.31 #134	JMU
Success rate	44% #53	50% #134	JMU

When APP has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	APP off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #86	18.0 #14	JMU
Yards / play	6.01 #55	4.85 #23	JMU
PPA / play	+0.13 #75	−0.11 #3	JMU
Success rate	43% #67	34% #1	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	8.8 #16	11.1 #24	19.9 #16	8.3 #23	7.1 #68	15.4 #40
APP allowed	10.2 #132	12.2 #127	22.4 #132	7.0 #101	5.3 #39	12.3 #69

APP scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	2.4 #129	11.3 #19	13.8 #70	5.0 #90	7.8 #49	12.8 #76
JMU allowed	4.5 #52	7.5 #68	12.0 #66	3.3 #16	2.7 #1	6.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.