Marshall @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff27°F4 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Marshall

8-3 · Power #69

▲ winner

Final

James Madison

8-3 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

JMU -2.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 24–28 JMU

✗ JMU (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -3

CloseJMU -2.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -3

0.5 → MRSH

CloseJMU -2.5

0.5 pts toward Marshall

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -3 · closed JMU -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward MRSHmodel JMU -9

model JMU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 49% (214 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 53% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -3

CloseJMU -2.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 2.5-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 35–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 3.4; 47.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	AFA vs UNLV 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–31	L	O46.5
Very close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	MRSH vs UAB 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	14–21	L	U55.5
Very close	BYU vs KU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–17	L	U55.5
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U51.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH WLWWW	10-1	91%	5-0	4-0
JMU LLWWL	5-5	50%	3-2	4-5

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH OOUUO	5-6	45%	8-3
JMU UUUOU	3-7	30%	8-3

Went over in OT. Of 380 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	7-3 70%	9-1 90%	5-5 50%
JMU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MRSH 0–1 JMU JMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · JMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2023	James Madison 20 @ Marshall 9	JMU -5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−5.5 →−2.5▲ 3.0#76

JMU+2.2 →+2.8▲ 0.6#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MRSH

Longer bar = better

JMU

#50

Offense

Even

#59

#61

Defense

JMU better ▶

#12

+0.8 #18

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+1.5 #1

64 plays #99

Pace

JMU faster ▶

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	MRSH off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #43	19.5 #19	JMU
Yards / play	6.07 #52	4.94 #24	JMU
PPA / play	+0.18 #47	−0.09 #3	JMU
Success rate	44% #58	34% #1	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #28	24.0 #60	JMU
Yards / play	5.97 #57	5.51 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.08 #59	MRSH
Success rate	43% #63	41% #61	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	5.5 #72	11.6 #18	17.2 #32	6.2 #64	8.3 #41	14.5 #57
JMU allowed	4.1 #41	9.0 #99	13.1 #75	3.6 #17	2.7 #2	6.4 #4

JMU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	8.6 #15	11.0 #24	19.6 #16	7.8 #29	6.5 #84	14.3 #59
MRSH allowed	3.4 #20	5.9 #29	9.3 #20	7.3 #105	7.5 #88	14.7 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.