Old Dominion @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F12 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Old Dominion

4-7 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas State

7-4 · Power #113

final

Closing spread

ODU -5.5

✓ ODU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 30–25 ARST

✓ ODU (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -3.5

CloseODU -5.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenODU -3.5

2 → ODU

CloseODU -5.5

2 pts toward Old Dominion

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ODU -3.5 · closed ODU -5.5 · moved 2 toward ODUmodel ODU -6

model ODU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 51% (89 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (107 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -3.5

CloseODU -5.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ODU as a 5.5-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 40–32; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 5; 62.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Very close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Very close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	35–28	W	O59
Very close	CONN @ UAB 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	31–23	W	P54
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	21–14	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU WWLLL	5-6	45%	3-2	0-3
ARST WLLWW	4-5	44%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: ODU away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU UOUOO	6-5	55%	4-7
ARST OOOUU	4-5	44%	7-4

Went over in Q3. Of 274 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ARST	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−8.4 →−2.7▲ 5.7#78

ARST−7.6 →−11.0▼ 3.4#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ODU

Longer bar = better

ARST

#74

Offense

◀ ODU better

#95

#71

Defense

◀ ODU better

#123

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

ARST better ▶

+0.4 #42

70 plays #33

Pace

ARST faster ▶

72 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: ODU offense

	ODU off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #79	31.5 #109	ODU
Yards / play	5.74 #73	6.78 #130	ODU
PPA / play	+0.16 #53	+0.24 #124	ODU
Success rate	42% #90	49% #130	ODU

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ODU defense

	ARST off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #100	27.6 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #104	5.78 #89	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #75	+0.12 #79	Even
Success rate	41% #100	39% #32	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	5.9 #64	8.4 #65	14.3 #66	6.2 #65	6.5 #86	12.6 #77
ARST allowed	6.3 #98	8.1 #80	14.4 #91	8.8 #125	8.4 #106	17.2 #122

ARST scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.1 #58	4.5 #127	10.5 #111	6.4 #59	7.3 #60	13.6 #66
ODU allowed	5.5 #80	6.6 #52	12.2 #61	7.1 #103	8.4 #106	15.5 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.