Southern Miss @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-10 · Power #132

final

Final

Troy

3-8 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -17.5

✓ TROY W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 15–33 TROY

✓ TROY (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -17

CloseTROY -17.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -17

0.5 → TROY

CloseTROY -17.5

0.5 pts toward Troy

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -17 · closed TROY -17.5 · moved 0.5 toward TROYmodel TROY -19.5

model TROY -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 52% (77 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -17

CloseTROY -17.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 17.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 52–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 17.5; 55.5 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs AKR 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-20	34–21	L	O51
Very close	SC vs VAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-18.75	21–20	L	U50
Very close	ARST vs MASS 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-17.25	35–33	L	O49.5
Very close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Close	UTSA vs TEM 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	51–27	W	O56
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	44–10	W	O50.5
Close	UTEP vs FIU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & total	-14	40–6	W	U50
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LWLLW	4-6	40%	1-4	3-6
TROY LWWWL	5-6	45%	2-3	1-2

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM OUUOU	3-7	30%	1-10
TROY UOOUO	5-6	45%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 342 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	1-9 10%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%
TROY	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USM 3–7 TROY TROY leads · 10 games since 1977 · TROY has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Troy 35 @ Southern Miss 17	TROY -17	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−10.1 →−22.4▼ 12.3#133

TROY+2.8 →−7.3▼ 10.1#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

USM

Longer bar = better

TROY

#133

Offense

TROY better ▶

#77

#123

Defense

TROY better ▶

#101

−1.6 #137

Turnovers

TROY better ▶

−0.7 #119

61 plays #125

Pace

TROY faster ▶

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	USM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #135	29.2 #97	TROY
Yards / play	4.66 #131	6.08 #106	TROY
PPA / play	−0.12 #135	+0.17 #101	TROY
Success rate	35% #131	44% #98	TROY

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #102	36.5 #129	TROY
Yards / play	5.63 #81	6.82 #133	TROY
PPA / play	+0.12 #77	+0.27 #130	TROY
Success rate	45% #48	44% #100	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USM scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	4.2 #102	6.6 #101	10.8 #110	2.1 #130	3.4 #134	5.5 #133
TROY allowed	6.1 #95	9.4 #102	15.5 #101	8.3 #120	5.5 #44	13.7 #90

TROY scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.5 #119	7.5 #87	10.9 #107	6.4 #58	6.4 #90	12.7 #75
USM allowed	8.6 #125	11.4 #125	20.0 #127	11.2 #134	5.8 #51	17.0 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.