Louisiana @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

9-2 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

5-6 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

UL -8.5

✓ UL W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 30–21 ULM

✓ UL (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -10

CloseUL -8.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -10

1.5 → ULM

CloseUL -8.5

1.5 pts toward UL Monroe

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -10 · closed UL -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward ULMmodel UL -11.5

model UL -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 53% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (128 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -10

CloseUL -8.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as an 8.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 37–23; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.9 against an average line of 9.1; 60.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	ECU @ TEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	49–46	L	O52
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	FRES @ SJSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	40–9	W	U52.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	JXST @ LT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	44–37	L	O55.5
Very close	LIB @ FIU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	38–6	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WWWLW	6-4	60%	4-1	4-3
ULM LWLLL	6-5	55%	4-1	4-5

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL OUOUO	5-5	50%	9-2
ULM OOOOU	6-5	55%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 374 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ULM	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UL 25–16 ULM UL leads · 41 games since 1976 · UL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	UL Monroe 21 @ Louisiana 52	UL -12.5	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−5.1 →+1.7▲ 6.8#64

ULM−17.3 →−11.3▲ 6.0#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

ULM

#12

Offense

◀ UL better

#113

#80

Defense

◀ UL better

#95

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.1 #81

64 plays #99

Pace

◀ UL faster

58 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #19	28.0 #93	UL
Yards / play	6.98 #4	5.59 #71	UL
PPA / play	+0.33 #6	+0.14 #91	UL
Success rate	47% #20	47% #123	UL

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	ULM off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #120	22.7 #49	UL
Yards / play	5.24 #112	5.36 #53	UL
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	+0.13 #87	Even
Success rate	36% #126	50% #131	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UL scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.9 #63	13.8 #1	19.7 #14	6.9 #49	8.8 #25	15.7 #34
ULM allowed	7.7 #119	6.6 #52	14.4 #90	5.9 #77	7.7 #93	13.6 #87

ULM scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.7 #114	5.3 #124	9.0 #123	4.5 #103	7.3 #61	11.8 #94
UL allowed	3.4 #17	8.6 #89	12.0 #59	6.4 #88	4.4 #15	10.7 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.