Marshall @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sat, Dec 7, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Louisiana

Weather at kickoff46°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

9-3 · Power #69

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana

10-2 · Power #71

final

Closing spread

UL -4.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 26–31 UL

✗ UL (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -4

CloseUL -4.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -4

0.5 → UL

CloseUL -4.5

0.5 pts toward Louisiana

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -4 · closed UL -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward ULmodel UL -7.5

model UL -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (140 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -4

CloseUL -4.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 4.5-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 31–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 4.6; 53.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	UAB vs UNT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	41–21	W	O58
Very close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4	17–23	L	U60.5
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	MEM vs BOIS 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	35–32	L	O59.5
Very close	JXST vs SHSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–11	W	U57.5
Very close	USA vs GASO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	30–34	L	O60
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Very close	MRSH vs UAB 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	14–21	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH LWWWW	11-1	92%	6-0	5-0
UL WWLWW	7-4	64%	2-3	5-3

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH OUUOO	6-6	50%	9-3
UL UOUOO	6-5	55%	10-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%
UL	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−5.5 →−2.3▲ 3.2#75

UL−5.1 →+1.6▲ 6.7#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

MRSH

Longer bar = better

#55

Offense

UL better ▶

#12

#65

Defense

Even

#77

+0.8 #17

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #11

64 plays #99

Pace

Even

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #41	22.8 #46	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #61	5.33 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #49	+0.12 #80	MRSH
Success rate	43% #68	49% #130	MRSH

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #16	24.8 #67	UL
Yards / play	6.88 #4	5.49 #64	UL
PPA / play	+0.32 #6	+0.09 #62	UL
Success rate	47% #21	42% #67	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	5.1 #84	10.7 #26	15.8 #42	7.1 #47	8.2 #42	15.3 #44
UL allowed	3.3 #17	8.8 #94	12.1 #56	6.1 #86	4.6 #17	10.7 #43

UL scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.9 #64	13.3 #2	19.2 #17	6.9 #53	9.5 #18	16.4 #23
MRSH allowed	4.3 #42	5.7 #25	9.9 #26	6.7 #96	7.4 #83	14.1 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.