Penn State vs Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sat, Dec 7, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Penn State

11-1 · Power #6

final

Final

Oregon

12-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -3.5

✓ ORE W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 25–28 ORE

✓ ORE (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -3

CloseORE -3.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -3

0.5 → ORE

CloseORE -3.5

0.5 pts toward Oregon

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -3 · closed ORE -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward OREmodel ORE -1.5

model ORE -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 55% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -3

CloseORE -3.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against PSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 45–37; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 4; 46.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-3	33–18	W	U53
Close	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Close	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5
Close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	31–28	W	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PSU LWWLW	5-6	45%	—	0-1
ORE WWLLW	5-5	50%	—	4-5

Venue/role: PSU neutral, as underdog; ORE neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UUOOO	5-6	45%	11-1
ORE UOUUO	4-6	40%	12-0

Went over in Q2. Of 415 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	9-1 90%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
ORE	10-0 100%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+18.8 →+19.8▲ 1.0#7

ORE+22.4 →+21.1▼ 1.3#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

PSU

Longer bar = better

ORE

#14

Offense

Even

#12

Defense

Even

#12

+0.6 #30

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #42

65 plays #85

Pace

ORE faster ▶

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #30	16.2 #9	ORE
Yards / play	6.80 #7	4.67 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #15	0.00 #16	Even
Success rate	52% #4	36% #10	Even

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #19	14.0 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.61 #15	4.49 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #10	−0.02 #12	Even
Success rate	51% #5	36% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.8 #87	12.5 #4	17.3 #32	8.1 #24	7.7 #50	15.8 #30
ORE allowed	3.0 #11	6.3 #37	9.3 #19	2.8 #7	4.1 #10	6.8 #5

ORE scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.0 #22	13.7 #1	21.7 #7	3.7 #118	9.8 #12	13.5 #64
PSU allowed	4.0 #36	5.4 #25	9.4 #23	1.3 #2	3.3 #6	4.6 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.