Iowa State vs Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sat, Dec 7, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Iowa State

10-2 · Power #24

final

Final

Arizona State

10-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -1.5

✓ ASU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 26–24 ASU

✗ ISU (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -1.5

CloseISU -1.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -1.5

3 → ISU

CloseISU -1.5

3 pts toward Iowa State

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -1.5 · closed ISU -1.5 · moved 3 toward ISUmodel ISU -1

model ISU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (113 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -1.5

CloseISU -1.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against ASU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 45–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 51.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.1; 48.2 points a game (usually 53.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	31–28	W	U60.5
Close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Close	OKST vs ND 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-1	37–35	W	O45
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	21–17	L	U50.5
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	CLEM vs ISU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-1.75	20–13	W	U45
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	38–10	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ISU LLWLW	7-5	58%	—	6-5
ASU WWWWW	10-2	83%	—	3-2

Venue/role: ISU neutral, as favorite; ASU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOUOU	6-6	50%	10-2
ASU OOUOO	7-5	58%	10-2

Went over in Q3. Of 414 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ASU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+4.2 →+11.4▲ 7.2#20

ASU−3.3 →+10.5▲ 13.8#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

ISU

Longer bar = better

ASU

#65

Offense

ASU better ▶

#28

#41

Defense

Even

#45

+0.8 #18

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #12

71 plays #19

Pace

◀ ISU faster

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #45	21.5 #33	Even
Yards / play	5.95 #57	5.18 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #52	+0.04 #36	Even
Success rate	40% #104	42% #69	ASU

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #39	19.6 #18	ISU
Yards / play	6.15 #43	5.39 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #22	+0.04 #38	Even
Success rate	49% #8	40% #53	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.0 #63	8.3 #67	14.3 #64	6.6 #59	10.3 #8	16.8 #16
ASU allowed	4.3 #42	5.9 #29	10.2 #31	5.4 #64	5.9 #54	11.3 #53

ASU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	8.0 #21	11.8 #15	19.8 #13	6.3 #62	6.0 #97	12.3 #83
ISU allowed	5.8 #84	5.8 #27	11.6 #49	3.4 #12	4.6 #16	8.0 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.