Texas vs Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal, 2024)

Wed, Jan 1, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTChick-fil-A Peach Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Texas

12-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

11-2 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

TEX -13.5

✓ ASU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 32–19 ASU

✓ TEX (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -12.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -12.5

1 → TEX

CloseTEX -13.5

1 pt toward Texas

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -12.5 · closed TEX -13.5 · moved 1 toward TEXmodel TEX -13

model TEX -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (122 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -12.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorite against ASU, the favorite won 10, covered 9, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 39–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 27.2 against an average line of 13.2; 58.8 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs LSU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-17	50–30	W	O52
Close	ALA vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation	-13	27–6	W	U57.5
Close	TEX vs OKST 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	49–21	W	O56.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-14.5	34–20	L	O52.5
Close	UGA vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	65–7	W	O61.75
Close	MICH vs PUR 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-15.75	43–22	W	O54
Close	UGA vs FLA 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-14	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	ALA vs KSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	45–20	W	O58
Loose	UGA vs MICH 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-7.5	34–11	W	U46
Loose	ND vs ARMY 2024 · Week 13 · loose	-14.5	49–14	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TEX LLWLW	8-6	57%	1-1	8-6
ASU WWWWW	11-2	85%	1-0	4-2

Venue/role: TEX neutral, as favorite; ASU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UUUUO	5-9	36%	12-2
ASU OUOOO	8-5	62%	11-2

Went over in OT. Of 395 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
ASU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+19.1 →+23.9▲ 4.8#2

ASU−3.3 →+11.9▲ 15.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TEX

Longer bar = better

ASU

#30

Offense

Even

#22

Defense

◀ TEX better

#45

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

ASU better ▶

+1.1 #6

71 plays #18

Pace

◀ TEX faster

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #24	21.3 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #27	5.16 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #41	+0.04 #34	Even
Success rate	46% #27	42% #80	TEX

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #32	13.3 #2	TEX
Yards / play	6.31 #30	4.17 #2	TEX
PPA / play	+0.26 #16	−0.12 #2	Even
Success rate	50% #8	38% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.2 #17	12.3 #5	20.5 #10	6.1 #62	7.1 #68	13.2 #68
ASU allowed	4.5 #43	5.7 #20	10.2 #25	5.0 #53	6.2 #55	11.2 #47

ASU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	8.2 #18	12.0 #8	20.2 #12	7.4 #34	5.5 #108	12.9 #76
TEX allowed	1.7 #3	3.6 #5	5.4 #1	4.1 #22	3.4 #6	7.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.