Florida vs Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F13 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Florida

4-3 · Power #21

final

Final

Georgia

6-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -14.5

✓ FLA W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 17–32 UGA

✓ UGA (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -15.5

CloseUGA -14.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -15.5

1 → FLA

CloseUGA -14.5

1 pt toward Florida

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -15.5 · closed UGA -14.5 · moved 1 toward FLAmodel UGA -14.5 matches the line

model UGA -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (85 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -15.5

CloseUGA -14.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 14.5-point neutral-site favorite against FLA, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 34–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 12.8; 57.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs FLA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-14	43–20	W	O50
Close	UGA vs FLA 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	TEX vs OKST 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-14.5	49–21	W	O56.5
Close	ALA vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-13	27–6	W	U57.5
Loose	UGA vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-13.5	65–7	W	O61.75
Loose	MICH vs PUR 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread	-15.75	43–22	W	O54
Loose	UGA vs LSU 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & season form	-17	50–30	W	O52
Loose	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & total	-7	17–29	L	U56
Loose	MSST vs TTU 2021 · Postseason · loose	-10	7–34	L	U58
Loose	LSU vs WIS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar season form	-9.5	35–31	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
FLA L–WWW	3-3	50%	—	3-2
UGA LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-0	1-5

Venue/role: FLA neutral, as underdog; UGA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA O–UUO	3-3	50%	4-3
UGA UOUOU	2-5	29%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 313 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FLA 0–1 UGA UGA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UGA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Georgia 43 @ Florida 20	UGA -14	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+8.5 →+8.9▲ 0.4#25

UGA+24.2 →+22.1▼ 2.1#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

FLA

Longer bar = better

UGA

#37

Offense

Even

#36

#75

Defense

UGA better ▶

#22

−0.1 #85

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #76

61 plays #123

Pace

UGA faster ▶

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #47	16.9 #13	UGA
Yards / play	6.82 #18	4.94 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #65	+0.04 #35	UGA
Success rate	48% #18	36% #13	Even

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #34	23.6 #66	UGA
Yards / play	6.44 #32	5.21 #47	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #37	+0.11 #74	UGA
Success rate	45% #41	45% #112	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	4.3 #100	10.9 #26	15.1 #54	7.0 #54	8.7 #26	15.7 #39
UGA allowed	4.3 #51	2.7 #4	7.0 #6	6.4 #90	3.4 #12	9.9 #29

UGA scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	5.4 #82	9.4 #50	14.9 #58	8.6 #25	9.6 #16	18.1 #13
FLA allowed	3.9 #38	6.7 #52	10.6 #41	8.7 #125	3.4 #12	12.1 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.