Florida @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Florida

4-4 · Power #21

final

Final

Texas

7-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -24.5

✓ TEX W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 14–37 TEX

✓ TEX (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -21.5

CloseTEX -24.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -21.5

3 → TEX

CloseTEX -24.5

3 pts toward Texas

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -21.5 · closed TEX -24.5 · moved 3 toward TEXmodel TEX -19

model TEX -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (87 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -21.5

CloseTEX -24.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 24.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 49–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23.5 against an average line of 21.2; 52.3 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	MICH vs MSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-22.25	29–7	L	U55
Close	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-21	53–31	W	O55.5
Close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA –WWWW	4-3	57%	1-0	4-2
TEX WLWLL	5-3	63%	3-2	5-3

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA –UUOO	4-3	57%	4-4
TEX OUUUU	3-5	38%	7-1

Went over in Q3. Of 304 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
TEX	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FLA 2–3 TEX (1 tied) TEX leads · 6 games since 1924 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+8.5 →+8.8▲ 0.3#26

TEX+19.1 →+22.9▲ 3.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FLA

Longer bar = better

TEX

#60

Offense

TEX better ▶

#28

#77

Defense

TEX better ▶

0.0 #71

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.4 #44

62 plays #122

Pace

TEX faster ▶

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	FLA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #58	11.5 #2	TEX
Yards / play	6.34 #38	3.81 #1	TEX
PPA / play	+0.09 #94	−0.15 #2	TEX
Success rate	45% #51	35% #10	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #16	24.9 #72	TEX
Yards / play	6.47 #28	5.34 #54	TEX
PPA / play	+0.22 #30	+0.10 #67	TEX
Success rate	46% #39	46% #114	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	3.8 #115	11.1 #22	14.9 #59	6.1 #68	8.5 #30	14.6 #47
TEX allowed	2.1 #9	4.8 #16	6.9 #4	1.3 #3	3.4 #8	4.6 #3

TEX scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.8 #22	12.1 #9	20.9 #11	9.0 #21	7.8 #51	16.8 #26
FLA allowed	3.8 #32	6.3 #41	10.0 #30	9.4 #128	4.8 #28	14.1 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.