LSU @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

LSU

6-3 · Power #12

final

Final

Florida

4-5 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -2.5

✓ FLA W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 30–27 FLA

✗ LSU (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -4

CloseLSU -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -4

1.5 → FLA

CloseLSU -2.5

1.5 pts toward Florida

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -4 · closed LSU -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward FLAmodel LSU -5

model LSU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 45% (134 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -4

CloseLSU -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 2.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 27–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 3.3; 59.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Very close	ARK @ MIZ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	27–29	L	O55.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Very close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	MISS @ TA&M 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	31–28	P	O55.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU WWWLL	3-5	38%	1-2	2-3
FLA WWWWL	4-4	50%	2-3	4-3

Venue/role: LSU away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU UUUOU	3-5	38%	6-3
FLA UUOOO	5-3	63%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
FLA	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LSU 35–34 FLA (3 tied) LSU leads · 72 games since 1937 · LSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Florida 35 @ LSU 52	LSU -16.5	LSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+17.5 →+15.1▼ 2.4#14

FLA+8.5 →+7.6▼ 0.9#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

LSU

Longer bar = better

FLA

#43

Offense

◀ LSU better

#64

#80

Defense

Even

#91

−0.1 #81

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #86

69 plays #40

Pace

◀ LSU faster

62 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #52	27.6 #89	LSU
Yards / play	6.31 #38	5.69 #77	LSU
PPA / play	+0.18 #46	+0.13 #81	LSU
Success rate	46% #35	46% #116	LSU

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #66	24.9 #71	Even
Yards / play	6.18 #44	5.79 #87	FLA
PPA / play	+0.08 #100	+0.15 #92	Even
Success rate	45% #47	41% #68	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	6.7 #50	10.3 #31	17.0 #36	5.8 #76	7.1 #65	12.9 #73
FLA allowed	4.9 #57	7.9 #74	12.8 #70	9.1 #126	5.0 #32	14.1 #102

FLA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	3.3 #120	9.9 #41	13.2 #82	6.6 #55	8.3 #34	14.9 #45
LSU allowed	5.0 #59	8.3 #84	13.3 #80	4.9 #48	6.3 #67	11.2 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.