Missouri @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 4:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

7-2 · Power #23

final

Final

South Carolina

6-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

SC -10.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 18–28 SC

✓ SC (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -14

CloseSC -10.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSC -14

3.5 → MIZ

CloseSC -10.5

3.5 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SC -14 · closed SC -10.5 · moved 3.5 toward MIZmodel SC -10

model SC -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 40% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 63% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -14

CloseSC -10.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 10.5-point home favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SC won 34–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 9.7; 52.4 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	22–26	L	O45.5
Very close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Close	IOWA vs PUR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & total	-11	7–24	L	U42.5
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	UTAH vs CAL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-9.5	34–14	W	O43
Close	PSU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14	28–0	W	U45
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-6	24–31	L	O44
Close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Close	UTAH vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-7.5	10–23	L	U47
Close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	63–17	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ LWLLW	4-5	44%	1-2	1-2
SC LWWWW	7-2	78%	3-2	3-1

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OUUUO	3-6	33%	7-2
SC UOOOU	5-4	56%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 173 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
SC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIZ 1–0 SC MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	South Carolina 12 @ Missouri 34	MIZ -7.5	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+14.2 →+8.9▼ 5.3#27

SC+5.6 →+15.2▲ 9.6#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MIZ

Longer bar = better

#83

Offense

Even

#76

#24

Defense

Even

#21

+0.4 #35

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #32

72 plays #18

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: SC defense

	MIZ off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #68	17.6 #12	SC
Yards / play	5.39 #99	4.53 #8	SC
PPA / play	+0.10 #85	−0.03 #13	SC
Success rate	42% #81	40% #50	SC

When SC has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	SC off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #54	18.4 #16	MIZ
Yards / play	5.52 #91	5.12 #38	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.13 #75	0.00 #21	MIZ
Success rate	42% #85	36% #19	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	6.4 #58	6.4 #109	12.9 #84	8.0 #32	6.0 #96	14.0 #58
SC allowed	3.4 #26	7.3 #63	10.8 #41	3.4 #17	3.3 #6	6.8 #8

SC scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.2 #23	7.7 #80	15.9 #52	6.1 #65	8.2 #36	14.3 #51
MIZ allowed	3.0 #19	5.8 #33	8.8 #18	5.0 #52	3.9 #11	8.9 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.