South Carolina @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 4:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

5-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

6-3 · Power #53

final

Closing spread

SC -5.5

✓ SC W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 27–21 VAN

✓ SC (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -3

CloseSC -5.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSC -3

2.5 → SC

CloseSC -5.5

2.5 pts toward South Carolina

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SC -3 · closed SC -5.5 · moved 2.5 toward SCmodel SC -7.5

model SC -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (80 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (23 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -3

CloseSC -5.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 5.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SC won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 5.3; 38.1 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	6–20	L	U44
Very close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Close	NEB @ MINN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-4.5	23–30	L	O48.5
Close	TROY @ ARMY 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–0	W	U42
Close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Close	WISC @ MINN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	13–23	L	U39

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WLWWW	6-2	75%	3-0	2-1
VAN WWLWW	7-2	78%	4-1	6-0

Venue/role: SC away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC OUOOO	5-3	63%	5-3
VAN OUUUU	5-4	56%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
VAN	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SC 1–0 VAN SC leads · 1 game since 2023 · SC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Vanderbilt 6 @ South Carolina 47	SC -13.5	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+5.6 →+14.0▲ 8.4#14

VAN−6.1 →+4.4▲ 10.5#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

VAN

#87

Offense

VAN better ▶

#68

#25

Defense

◀ SC better

#69

+0.6 #32

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #26

69 plays #39

Pace

◀ SC faster

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Even matchup

	SC off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #52	21.0 #31	VAN
Yards / play	5.33 #103	5.61 #71	VAN
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	+0.12 #81	Even
Success rate	40% #103	43% #92	Even

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: SC defense

	VAN off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #53	18.9 #20	SC
Yards / play	5.39 #97	4.51 #7	SC
PPA / play	+0.18 #49	−0.03 #13	SC
Success rate	43% #74	40% #58	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SC scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	9.3 #16	7.8 #81	17.0 #40	5.1 #88	8.4 #33	13.5 #63
VAN allowed	4.2 #46	4.8 #17	9.0 #22	6.0 #77	4.9 #30	10.9 #47

VAN scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.3 #62	8.7 #61	15.0 #57	4.1 #109	9.7 #14	13.8 #59
SC allowed	3.9 #39	8.3 #82	12.1 #67	3.0 #13	3.8 #9	6.8 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.