Alabama @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 17Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Alabama

6-2 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

LSU

6-2 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

ALA -2.5

✓ ALA W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 31–28 LSU

✓ ALA (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -2.5

CloseALA -2.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -2.5

no move

CloseALA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 2

Close57.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -2.5 · unchangedmodel ALA -5

model ALA -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (130 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -2.5

CloseALA -2.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 2.5-point road favorite at LSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 42–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 3.3; 61.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Close	CIN @ SMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	29–27	L	U59.5
Close	ORST @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–27	L	U57.5
Close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	40–43	L	O55
Close	MIA @ LOU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-4.5	52–45	W	O61
Close	KSU @ COLO 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–28	L	O55
Close	LSU @ ARK 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–10	W	U57
Close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	21–26	L	U55
Close	MICH @ MSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	33–37	L	O50.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WLLLW	4-4	50%	1-2	3-4
LSU –WWWL	3-4	43%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; LSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OOOUU	5-3	63%	6-2
LSU –UUUO	3-4	43%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LSU	8-2 80%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ALA 1–0 LSU ALA leads · 1 game since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	LSU 28 @ Alabama 42	ALA -3	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.2 →+23.0▲ 2.8#3

LSU+17.5 →+16.2▼ 1.3#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ALA

Longer bar = better

LSU

#22

Offense

Even

#35

#14

Defense

◀ ALA better

#68

+0.9 #20

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

+0.3 #52

63 plays #112

Pace

LSU faster ▶

70 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #15	22.8 #55	ALA
Yards / play	6.92 #7	5.71 #83	ALA
PPA / play	+0.24 #23	+0.12 #79	ALA
Success rate	45% #43	40% #55	Even

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	LSU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #36	18.6 #17	Even
Yards / play	6.45 #31	4.68 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #42	−0.04 #11	ALA
Success rate	46% #31	37% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	9.1 #18	10.3 #33	19.4 #22	7.8 #37	10.5 #6	18.3 #12
LSU allowed	3.9 #41	8.5 #88	12.4 #69	4.6 #41	5.4 #46	10.0 #29

LSU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	7.1 #43	11.3 #20	18.4 #28	6.5 #60	7.1 #65	13.6 #62
ALA allowed	2.4 #12	4.0 #7	6.4 #4	6.3 #84	6.0 #60	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.