Oklahoma @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 7:45 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

5-4 · Power #28

final

Final

Missouri

6-2 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -3.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 25–23 MIZ

✗ OU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -2.5

CloseOU -3.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -2.5

6 → OU

CloseOU -3.5

6 pts toward Oklahoma

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -2.5 · closed OU -3.5 · moved 6 toward OUmodel MIZ -2

model MIZ -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (118 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 49% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -2.5

CloseOU -3.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 3.5-point road favorite at MIZ, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 30–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 3.7; 46.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK @ FLA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	20–48	L	O42.5
Close	SC @ OU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-1	35–9	W	O40.5
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	MICH @ ILL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-6	7–21	L	U44
Close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	UK @ MSST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Close	TULN @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-1	27–24	W	O44
Loose	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & total	-6	6–20	L	U44
Loose	NEB @ MINN 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	23–30	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WLLWW	5-4	56%	2-0	3-1
MIZ LLWLL	3-5	38%	2-3	0-2

Venue/role: OU away, as favorite; MIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU OUOUO	4-5	44%	5-4
MIZ OOUUU	2-6	25%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 145 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MIZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OU 68–25 MIZ (5 tied) OU leads · 98 games since 1902 · OU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+17.8 →+9.2▼ 8.6#25

MIZ+14.2 →+8.6▼ 5.6#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#115

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#72

#22

Defense

Even

#30

+0.2 #55

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #60

70 plays #33

Pace

Even

72 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	OU off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #92	17.9 #14	MIZ
Yards / play	4.80 #129	5.26 #48	MIZ
PPA / play	−0.01 #121	+0.04 #38	MIZ
Success rate	38% #116	37% #19	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	MIZ off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #73	21.0 #30	OU
Yards / play	5.59 #82	4.93 #27	OU
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	0.00 #19	OU
Success rate	44% #63	36% #11	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OU scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	6.4 #54	8.4 #67	14.9 #57	3.2 #124	7.2 #60	10.4 #109
MIZ allowed	3.4 #28	5.4 #26	8.8 #18	5.6 #69	2.6 #4	8.3 #14

MIZ scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.3 #41	6.9 #97	14.1 #65	8.1 #33	4.3 #127	12.4 #83
OU allowed	5.3 #64	7.4 #67	12.8 #71	3.9 #26	4.3 #15	8.2 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.