South Carolina @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

3-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma

4-2 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

SC -2.5

✓ SC W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 22–21 OU

✓ SC (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -3.5

CloseSC -2.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -3.5

6 → SC

CloseSC -2.5

6 pts toward South Carolina

Total

Open41.5

▼ 1

Close40.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -3.5 · closed SC -2.5 · moved 6 toward SCmodel OU -4.5

model OU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 44% (105 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (24 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -3.5

CloseSC -2.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 2.5-point road favorite at OU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 35–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 40.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 3.2; 46.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	TULN @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	27–24	W	O44
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	UK @ MSST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	PUR @ NEB 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-1	14–31	L	O39.5
Loose	ISU @ BAY 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-3	30–18	W	O47
Loose	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	30–20	W	O44.25
Loose	ND @ CLEM 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	23–31	L	O44.5
Loose	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	6–20	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WWWLW	4-2	67%	2-0	1-1
OU LWLWL	3-3	50%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: SC away, as favorite; OU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UOOUO	3-3	50%	3-3
OU UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2

Went over in Q3. Of 100 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
OU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+5.6 →+9.5▲ 3.9#25

OU+17.8 →+10.3▼ 7.5#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

#94

Offense

◀ SC better

#123

#38

Defense

OU better ▶

#24

0.0 #80

Turnovers

OU better ▶

+1.2 #11

70 plays #40

Pace

◀ SC faster

64 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	SC off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #78	19.0 #26	OU
Yards / play	5.21 #106	5.07 #41	OU
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	−0.02 #18	OU
Success rate	40% #99	35% #10	OU

When OU has the ball

Advantage: SC defense

	OU off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #100	20.3 #37	SC
Yards / play	4.48 #131	4.64 #17	SC
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	0.00 #25	SC
Success rate	34% #131	41% #73	SC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SC scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	6.5 #60	7.5 #86	14.0 #72	5.2 #82	8.3 #43	13.5 #68
OU allowed	2.2 #12	8.8 #92	11.0 #57	3.7 #26	4.3 #25	8.0 #17

OU scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	7.3 #47	6.3 #102	13.7 #76	1.5 #132	9.2 #29	10.7 #104
SC allowed	4.7 #60	7.7 #75	12.3 #68	3.0 #16	5.0 #37	8.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.