Texas A&M @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

5-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

1-5 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

TA&M -21.5

✓ MSST W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 38–17 MSST

✓ TA&M (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -15

CloseTA&M -21.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -15

6.5 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -21.5

6.5 pts toward Texas A&M

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -15 · closed TA&M -21.5 · moved 6.5 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -14.5

model TA&M -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -15

CloseTA&M -21.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like TA&M as a 21.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 34–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 7 similar games. 58 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 7.

Favorite won

6 of 786%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 25.4 against an average line of 21; 59.7 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Loose	TULN @ UAB 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-19.5	71–20	W	O52
Loose	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-24	55–0	W	O53
Loose	TEX @ BAY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-17.5	38–6	W	U49.5
Loose	FLA @ SC 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-20.5	17–40	L	O52
Loose	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & total	-21	41–16	W	O53
Loose	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LW–LW	2-3	40%	1-0	2-3
MSST LL–WW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OO–UO	3-2	60%	5-1
MSST UO–UO	3-2	60%	1-5

Went over in Q4. Of 269 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
MSST	2-8 20%	4-4-1 50%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TA&M 10–9 MSST TA&M leads · 19 games since 1912 · TA&M has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Mississippi State 10 @ Texas A&M 51	TA&M -16.5	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+13.5 →+14.1▲ 0.6#14

MSST+1.2 →−1.6▼ 2.8#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TA&M

Longer bar = better

MSST

#46

Offense

◀ TA&M better

#77

#31

Defense

◀ TA&M better

#127

+1.0 #20

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

+0.2 #65

66 plays #82

Pace

MSST faster ▶

68 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #51	33.2 #120	TA&M
Yards / play	6.31 #41	6.52 #123	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	+0.29 #128	TA&M
Success rate	45% #48	53% #136	TA&M

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	MSST off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #74	16.7 #17	TA&M
Yards / play	5.64 #86	5.17 #48	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.18 #54	+0.04 #41	Even
Success rate	41% #95	36% #16	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.5 #24	10.7 #33	19.2 #24	6.2 #70	5.7 #97	11.8 #93
MSST allowed	6.8 #106	15.0 #131	21.8 #130	5.2 #64	6.2 #67	11.3 #57

MSST scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.0 #103	7.8 #82	11.8 #97	7.0 #56	9.2 #27	16.2 #34
TA&M allowed	2.8 #16	1.0 #1	3.8 #4	7.0 #96	5.8 #56	12.8 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.