Kentucky @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

3-3 · Power #50

final

Final

Florida

3-3 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -2.5

✓ FLA W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 22–21 FLA

✗ UK (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -1.5

CloseUK -2.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -1.5

4 → UK

CloseUK -2.5

4 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open40.5

▲ 1

Close41.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -1.5 · closed UK -2.5 · moved 4 toward UKmodel FLA -1

model FLA -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (110 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -1.5

CloseUK -2.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 2.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 48–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 3.9; 42.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	UK @ MSST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Close	ISU @ BAY 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	30–18	W	O47
Close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	WIS @ MINN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-2.25	28–14	W	U44
Close	WISC @ PUR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–13	W	O41
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LWWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	2-2
FLA LL–WW	2-3	40%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: UK away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UUOUU	1-5	17%	3-3
FLA UO–UU	2-3	40%	3-3

Went over in Q3. Of 127 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
FLA	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UK 22–54 FLA FLA leads · 76 games since 1917 · UK has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Florida 14 @ Kentucky 33	UK -1	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.8 →+8.5▲ 2.7#28

FLA+8.5 →+6.9▼ 1.6#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

FLA

#96

Offense

FLA better ▶

#53

#33

Defense

◀ UK better

#88

+0.2 #60

Turnovers

◀ UK better

−0.5 #101

63 plays #105

Pace

Even

61 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #117	24.2 #72	FLA
Yards / play	5.11 #112	5.32 #60	FLA
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.17 #102	Even
Success rate	44% #62	46% #117	UK

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #72	14.5 #9	UK
Yards / play	6.60 #29	5.08 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #81	+0.01 #30	UK
Success rate	47% #31	39% #52	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UK scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	1.8 #131	7.4 #89	9.2 #118	3.2 #121	6.0 #92	9.2 #120
FLA allowed	4.5 #58	5.7 #43	10.2 #47	9.0 #125	4.0 #19	13.0 #81

FLA scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	4.5 #98	8.7 #63	13.2 #87	7.0 #57	7.8 #51	14.8 #46
UK allowed	4.2 #53	2.6 #6	6.8 #7	6.0 #79	4.6 #30	10.6 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.