Florida @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida

3-2 · Power #21

final

Final

Tennessee

4-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -13.5

✓ FLA W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 20–35 TENN

✓ TENN (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -16.5

CloseTENN -13.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -16.5

3 → FLA

CloseTENN -13.5

3 pts toward Florida

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -16.5 · closed TENN -13.5 · moved 3 toward FLAmodel TENN -20

model TENN -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 48% (62 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -16.5

CloseTENN -13.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 13.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 23–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 13.7; 59.9 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	MISS vs UK 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-15	17–20	L	U51.5
Close	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	PITT vs MIA 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	34–38	L	O61
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	44–17	W	O50
Close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-13	41–20	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA LLL–W	1-3	25%	—	1-2
TENN WWWWL	4-1	80%	2-0	4-1

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OUO–U	2-2	50%	3-2
TENN OOOUU	3-2	60%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	6-3 67%
TENN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FLA 1–0 TENN FLA leads · 1 game since 2023 · FLA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Tennessee 16 @ Florida 29	TENN -5	FLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+8.5 →+5.5▼ 3.0#45

TENN+13.9 →+21.1▲ 7.2#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FLA

Longer bar = better

TENN

#43

Offense

TENN better ▶

#22

#92

Defense

TENN better ▶

−0.6 #104

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.4 #48

59 plays #131

Pace

TENN faster ▶

75 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	FLA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #63	9.4 #4	TENN
Yards / play	6.99 #20	3.80 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #68	−0.15 #3	TENN
Success rate	49% #20	34% #6	Even

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #4	24.4 #75	TENN
Yards / play	6.92 #22	5.47 #68	TENN
PPA / play	+0.29 #21	+0.20 #107	TENN
Success rate	46% #39	46% #116	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	4.8 #91	10.4 #42	15.2 #60	7.0 #58	8.0 #45	15.0 #47
TENN allowed	1.2 #7	0.6 #2	1.8 #1	3.4 #25	4.2 #32	7.6 #20

TENN scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	15.6 #2	14.2 #6	29.8 #1	9.4 #18	6.8 #72	16.2 #37
FLA allowed	5.4 #78	6.8 #57	12.2 #69	8.8 #119	3.4 #18	12.2 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.