Florida International @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Tue, Oct 8, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Florida International

2-3 · Power #121

final

Final

Liberty

4-0 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -15.5

✓ FIU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 19–35 LIB

✓ LIB (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -20

CloseLIB -15.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -20

4.5 → FIU

CloseLIB -15.5

4.5 pts toward Florida International

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -20 · closed LIB -15.5 · moved 4.5 toward FIUmodel LIB -18

model LIB -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 47% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -20

CloseLIB -15.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 15.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12 against an average line of 15.8; 54.8 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-17	17–13	L	U62
Loose	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Loose	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Loose	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · loose	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5
Loose	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Loose	TCU vs HOU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-16.5	19–30	L	U52
Loose	CCU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-12	38–26	P	O59.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1
LIB LLLW	1-3	25%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU UOOOU	3-2	60%	2-3
LIB OUUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
LIB	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FIU 1–3 LIB LIB leads · 4 games since 2020 · FIU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Liberty 38 @ Florida International 6	LIB -10	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−14.7 →−13.6▲ 1.1#119

LIB+3.4 →+0.2▼ 3.2#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FIU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#105

Offense

LIB better ▶

#33

#77

Defense

LIB better ▶

#30

−0.2 #82

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+0.3 #57

59 plays #128

Pace

LIB faster ▶

70 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	FIU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #79	20.5 #43	LIB
Yards / play	5.53 #93	4.93 #32	LIB
PPA / play	−0.07 #131	−0.09 #8	LIB
Success rate	37% #117	37% #36	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #37	28.0 #93	LIB
Yards / play	6.58 #34	5.38 #60	LIB
PPA / play	+0.24 #33	+0.10 #78	LIB
Success rate	47% #29	41% #77	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	7.0 #55	8.4 #70	15.4 #63	5.8 #77	6.4 #79	12.2 #84
LIB allowed	7.5 #109	4.3 #24	11.8 #64	5.3 #66	3.5 #29	8.8 #33

LIB scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.3 #96	7.5 #84	11.8 #98	7.8 #47	14.0 #3	21.8 #7
FIU allowed	5.6 #84	9.2 #100	14.8 #95	9.8 #126	3.4 #21	13.2 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.