Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Thu, Oct 10, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

1-4 · Power #129

final

Final

Louisiana Tech

1-3 · Power #112

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -4.5

✓ LT W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 22–27 LT

✓ LT (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -4

CloseLT -4.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -4

0.5 → LT

CloseLT -4.5

0.5 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -4 · closed LT -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward LTmodel LT -6.5

model LT -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (90 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -4

CloseLT -4.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 4.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 48–21; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 2.5 against an average line of 4.1; 43.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV vs CSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	14–17	L	U45
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Very close	UNM vs UNLV 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	17–31	L	O45
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	AKR vs KENT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–27	W	O39.75
Close	CMU vs BALL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	37–34	L	O50.5
Close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Close	RICE vs CLT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4	20–21	L	U48
Close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU –LLLW	1-3	25%	1-1	1-3
LT –WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU –UOOU	2-2	50%	1-4
LT –OUU	1-2	33%	1-3

Went over in Q2. Of 240 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
LT	1-9 10%	2-7 22%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MTSU 1–0 LT MTSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · MTSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 10 2023	Louisiana Tech 23 @ Middle Tennessee 31	MTSU -3	MTSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−7.5 →−17.1▼ 9.6#126

LT−10.2 →−13.5▼ 3.3#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MTSU

Longer bar = better

#114

Offense

Even

#127

#132

Defense

LT better ▶

#22

−1.4 #130

Turnovers

Even

−2.0 #137

64 plays #96

Pace

LT faster ▶

66 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	MTSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #127	21.8 #52	LT
Yards / play	5.43 #100	4.50 #14	LT
PPA / play	+0.02 #111	−0.04 #18	LT
Success rate	37% #117	32% #2	LT

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #121	39.0 #131	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #121	7.02 #132	Even
PPA / play	−0.16 #136	+0.37 #136	Even
Success rate	33% #131	51% #130	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	3.4 #110	3.4 #130	6.8 #129	5.6 #78	3.6 #128	9.2 #119
LT allowed	6.0 #90	2.3 #8	8.3 #29	7.0 #92	5.8 #62	12.8 #88

LT scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	2.3 #130	7.5 #85	9.8 #113	3.3 #121	5.8 #95	9.0 #121
MTSU allowed	11.8 #131	9.4 #99	21.2 #129	10.8 #132	7.0 #88	17.8 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.