Charlotte @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

1-3 · Power #119

▲ winner

Final

Rice

1-3 · Power #104

final

Closing spread

RICE -4.5

✓ CLT W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 22–27 RICE

✗ RICE (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRICE -6

CloseRICE -4.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRICE -6

1.5 → CLT

CloseRICE -4.5

1.5 pts toward Charlotte

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RICE -6 · closed RICE -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward CLTmodel RICE -5.5

model RICE -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (80 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRICE -6

CloseRICE -4.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RICE as a 4.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLT won 21–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 3.7; 44.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Very close	IU vs MSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–24	L	U47
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	27–20	W	O46
Close	EMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–27	L	O39.5
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Close	BUFF vs MASS 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–3	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT –W–L	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
RICE LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; RICE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT –O–O	2-0	100%	1-3
RICE UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	3-7 30%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%
RICE	3-7 30%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLT 0–1 RICE RICE leads · 1 game since 2023 · RICE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Rice 28 @ Charlotte 7	Pick’em	RICE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−9.5 →−14.5▼ 5.0#123

RICE−5.5 →−12.2▼ 6.7#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CLT

Longer bar = better

RICE

#121

Offense

Even

#114

#124

Defense

RICE better ▶

#53

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

◀ CLT better

−1.3 #125

62 plays #103

Pace

◀ CLT faster

59 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	CLT off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #124	27.8 #93	RICE
Yards / play	5.17 #109	4.97 #51	RICE
PPA / play	−0.04 #124	+0.06 #63	RICE
Success rate	33% #128	30% #3	RICE

When RICE has the ball

Even matchup

	RICE off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #93	36.5 #126	RICE
Yards / play	5.40 #100	6.80 #130	RICE
PPA / play	−0.08 #127	+0.26 #125	Even
Success rate	30% #135	45% #113	CLT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	0.8 #133	6.8 #95	7.5 #122	2.5 #125	7.0 #57	9.5 #112
RICE allowed	9.5 #122	8.5 #92	18.0 #117	6.3 #85	3.5 #35	9.8 #46

RICE scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.5 #109	7.8 #78	11.3 #99	7.8 #49	7.0 #57	14.8 #54
CLT allowed	7.5 #108	12.0 #123	19.5 #122	8.5 #113	8.5 #113	17.0 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.