Thu, Sep 26, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Temple · Conference game
Closing spread
ARMY -21.5
✓ ARMY W
Total
52.5
▲ Over · 56 pts
Model before kickoff
ARMY 33–14 TEM
✓ ARMY (92%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARMY -13
CloseARMY -21.5
Total45.5 → 52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARMY -13
8.5 → ARMY
CloseARMY -21.5
8.5 pts toward Army
Total
Open45.5
▲ 7
Close52.5
Up 7 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARMY -13 · closed ARMY -21.5 · moved 8.5 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -12
model ARMY -12
Opened 45.5 · closed 52.5 · moved 7 upmodel 47
model 47
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARMY -13
CloseARMY -21.5
Total45.5 → 52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
ARMY as a 21.5-point road favorite at TEM. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Army ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Army
8.5 pts (ARMY -13 → ARMY -21.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 7
45.5 → 52.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Army have 3 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 236 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 5-4 56% | 4-5 44% | |
| 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ARMY−16.8 →−5.1▲ 11.7#88
TEM−13.8 →−18.1▼ 4.3#130
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4
Longer bar = better
#21
Offense
◀ ARMY better#117
#62
Defense
◀ ARMY better#111
+1.3 #15
Turnovers
◀ ARMY better−2.5 #135
65 plays #83
Pace
Even64 plays #89
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| ARMY off | TEM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 34.3 #41 | 36.5 #126 | ARMY |
| Yards / play | 6.61 #30 | 5.79 #95 | ARMY |
| PPA / play | +0.45 #10 | +0.23 #114 | ARMY |
| Success rate | 62% #3 | 44% #110 | ARMY |
| TEM off | ARMY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 19.8 #116 | 9.3 #8 | ARMY |
| Yards / play | 4.98 #115 | 4.99 #52 | ARMY |
| PPA / play | −0.01 #116 | +0.08 #70 | ARMY |
| Success rate | 36% #122 | 47% #118 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams
ARMY scoring against the TEM defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9.3 #32 | 11.7 #40 | 21.0 #27 | 6.3 #76 | 7.0 #60 | 13.3 #68 | |
10.0 #124 | 14.8 #130 | 24.8 #131 | 6.3 #82 | 5.5 #69 | 11.8 #70 |
TEM scoring against the ARMY defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.8 #133 | 6.8 #92 | 7.5 #121 | 4.3 #107 | 8.0 #45 | 12.3 #77 | |
2.3 #24 | 2.3 #16 | 4.7 #10 | 2.3 #18 | 2.3 #17 | 4.7 #16 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 5 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ARMY5d short
TEM5d short
Even
Tempo
Average 129 plays
slowavg 132fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

