UTSA @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

UTSA

2-2 · Power #82

final

Final

East Carolina

2-2 · Power #92

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -1.5

✓ ECU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 23–24 ECU

✓ ECU (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -3.5

CloseECU -1.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -3.5

2 → UTSA

CloseECU -1.5

2 pts toward UTSA

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -3.5 · closed ECU -1.5 · moved 2 toward UTSAmodel ECU -2.5

model ECU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 43% (79 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 43% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -3.5

CloseECU -1.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 1.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 30–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 2.2; 51.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	USA vs GASO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–14	W	O49.5
Very close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Close	GAST vs TROY 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-1	7–28	L	U51
Close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Close	CONN vs FAU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	48–14	W	O45.5
Close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA –LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2
ECU WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA –OOU	2-1	67%	2-2
ECU UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	7-3 70%	4-4-1 50%	5-4 56%
ECU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTSA 1–0 ECU UTSA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	East Carolina 27 @ UTSA 41	UTSA -17.5	ECU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+1.0 →−5.8▼ 6.8#92

ECU−7.2 →−6.5▲ 0.7#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UTSA

Longer bar = better

ECU

#84

Offense

◀ UTSA better

#98

#86

Defense

ECU better ▶

#44

0.0 #81

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

−1.3 #124

76 plays #8

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

72 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	UTSA off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #109	18.3 #41	ECU
Yards / play	5.09 #112	4.41 #25	ECU
PPA / play	+0.19 #58	+0.02 #47	Even
Success rate	44% #58	39% #64	Even

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #92	32.0 #114	ECU
Yards / play	5.63 #91	5.89 #99	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #119	+0.12 #84	UTSA
Success rate	41% #90	37% #47	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.8 #67	8.8 #66	15.5 #70	3.5 #112	3.5 #117	7.0 #125
ECU allowed	0.8 #5	7.0 #65	7.8 #29	7.0 #94	3.5 #35	10.5 #55

ECU scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	12.5 #9	4.3 #120	16.8 #59	6.3 #72	3.3 #123	9.5 #109
UTSA allowed	7.8 #110	11.3 #117	19.0 #118	6.0 #76	7.0 #87	13.0 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.