UTSA @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTSA

2-3 · Power #82

final

Final

Rice

1-4 · Power #104

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -3.5

✓ RICE W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 26–23 RICE

✗ UTSA (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -4

CloseUTSA -3.5

Total47.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -4

0.5 → RICE

CloseUTSA -3.5

0.5 pts toward Rice

Total

Open47.5

▲ 4

Close51.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -4 · closed UTSA -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward RICEmodel UTSA -2

model UTSA -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 41% (82 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -4

CloseUTSA -3.5

Total47.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 3.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: RICE won 29–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 4.6; 55.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	APP @ ODU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	21–28	L	U56
Close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Close	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	41–34	W	O52
Close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6	21–14	W	U55
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	37–21	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA –LLWL	1-3	25%	0-3	1-0
RICE LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: UTSA away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA –OOUU	2-2	50%	2-3
RICE UOUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 298 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	6-4 60%	4-4-1 50%	4-5 44%
RICE	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTSA 1–0 RICE UTSA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Rice 14 @ UTSA 34	UTSA -14	UTSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+1.0 →−6.9▼ 7.9#96

RICE−5.5 →−10.8▼ 5.3#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UTSA

Longer bar = better

RICE

#109

Offense

Even

#108

#68

Defense

RICE better ▶

#47

−0.2 #89

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

−0.8 #113

79 plays #3

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

61 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	UTSA off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #112	26.4 #88	RICE
Yards / play	5.09 #112	4.91 #31	RICE
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.08 #63	RICE
Success rate	38% #112	34% #7	RICE

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: UTSA defense

	RICE off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #99	31.6 #112	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #84	5.66 #86	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #116	+0.07 #57	UTSA
Success rate	33% #131	35% #18	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.4 #49	7.6 #84	15.0 #62	2.8 #125	4.2 #121	7.0 #128
RICE allowed	7.6 #113	6.8 #57	14.4 #93	7.8 #111	4.2 #32	12.0 #66

RICE scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	2.8 #125	8.2 #73	11.0 #103	6.2 #72	7.6 #53	13.8 #62
UTSA allowed	6.8 #97	10.4 #113	17.2 #108	7.6 #108	6.8 #78	14.4 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.