Florida Atlantic @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

2-4 · Power #118

final

Final

UTSA

2-4 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -4.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 23–28 UTSA

✓ UTSA (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -4

CloseUTSA -4.5

Total55.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -4

0.5 → UTSA

CloseUTSA -4.5

0.5 pts toward UTSA

Total

Open55.5

▼ 4

Close51.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -4 · closed UTSA -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward UTSAmodel UTSA -5

model UTSA -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (98 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -4

CloseUTSA -4.5

Total55.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 4.5-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 38–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 4.5; 57.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	FSU vs SYR 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	33–30	L	O50.25
Close	HAW vs NMSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	20–17	L	U55
Close	NCSU vs WAKE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	30–34	L	O52.5
Close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	31–23	W	P54
Close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–23	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	2-0
UTSA LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: FAU away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU UOOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
UTSA OOUUO	3-2	60%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 309 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	2-8 20%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
UTSA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FAU 0–1 UTSA UTSA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	UTSA 36 @ Florida Atlantic 10	UTSA -2.5	UTSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−6.9 →−8.4▼ 1.5#101

UTSA+1.0 →−7.0▼ 8.0#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

FAU

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#87

Offense

◀ FAU better

#106

#68

Defense

Even

#76

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

◀ FAU better

−0.2 #85

65 plays #85

Pace

UTSA faster ▶

79 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #98	31.2 #109	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #82	5.78 #89	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #76	+0.14 #90	Even
Success rate	41% #93	36% #17	UTSA

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: FAU defense

	UTSA off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #109	26.5 #88	FAU
Yards / play	5.09 #114	5.77 #87	FAU
PPA / play	+0.08 #93	0.00 #23	FAU
Success rate	39% #107	41% #75	FAU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	4.0 #103	9.0 #55	13.0 #89	7.5 #42	4.0 #128	11.5 #97
UTSA allowed	5.7 #79	10.2 #108	15.8 #104	8.7 #119	6.7 #77	15.3 #114

UTSA scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.2 #71	8.0 #77	14.2 #72	2.8 #124	5.8 #92	8.7 #121
FAU allowed	6.7 #98	6.8 #56	13.5 #81	5.0 #56	8.0 #104	13.0 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.